中国资本投资动态效率及其影响因素的实证研究

发布时间：2018-10-22 17:52

【摘要】：资本投资动态效率是分析资本积累和经济增长的核心。长期以来，中国经济增长主要依靠投资驱动，但中国经济的高增长伴随着高投入、高消耗，在资本资源稀缺情况下，提高资本投资的动态效率成为经济长期可持续发展的充分条件。因此，对中国资本投资动态效率的测度和影响因素的研究，，可为相关部门客观评价中国经济增长绩效，准确把握资本投资动态效率变动的原因，并通过相关政策制定引导后续资本投入，提升经济增长效率和质量提供理论依据。本文结合宏观经济理论与中国国民收入统计账户的特点，在重新界定资本投资总收益核算公式的基础上，首先利用AMSZ检验准则，将资本投资总收益是否超过总投资作为判断经济是否动态有效的标准，对中国资本投资的整体、区域、省际、产业及工业行业动态效率进行检验；其次，运用多元回归模型，对影响中国资本投资动态效率的因素进行实证检验；最后，对改善中国资本投资动态效率的对策进行了探讨。本研究得出如下主要结论：第一，在整体层面，中国资本投资动态效率分为有效和无效两个阶段：1994-2008年，中国资本投资净收益率为正，经济运行处于动态有效状态；2009年后，中国资本投资动态无效。第二，在区域层面，中国资本投资动态效率区域与省际间差异明显。东部最高，中部居中，西部最低；1998-2008年，仅西部少数省份资本投资效率动态无效；2009-2011年，除东部少数省份外，中西部大部分省份资本投资均处于动态无效状态。第三，在产业层面，中国三次产业资本投资动态效率整体变动趋势一致，但产业间存在显著差异。第二产业资本投资净收益率最高，第三产业次之，第一产业资本投资净收益率最低，且在2005年后处于动态无效状态。工业资本投资动态效率与中国整体资本投资动态效率变动趋势一致，但工业内不同行业间资本投资动态效率存在较大差异。第四，市场化进程、城乡二元结构、资本-劳动比率、生产性公共支出比重与资本投资净收益率负相关，技术进步偏差、人力资本积累与资本投资净收益率正相关。第五，提高资本投资动态效率的对策包括：继续深化体制改革，加快市场化进程；不断优化产业结构，改变二元经济结构；促进经济增长方式转变，提高经济运行质量；积极发挥市场在资源优化配置的功能与决定性作用；重视技术进步和人力资本投资；在吸引外资投资的同时，积极鼓励国内资本对外投资。
[Abstract]:The dynamic efficiency of capital investment is the core of analyzing capital accumulation and economic growth. For a long time, China's economic growth has been mainly driven by investment. However, the high growth of China's economy has been accompanied by high investment and consumption. In the case of scarce capital resources, Improving the dynamic efficiency of capital investment has become a sufficient condition for long-term sustainable economic development. Therefore, the study on the measurement and influence factors of the dynamic efficiency of China's capital investment can provide the relevant departments with objective evaluation of the performance of China's economic growth, and accurately grasp the reasons for the change of the dynamic efficiency of capital investment. And through the relevant policies to guide the follow-up capital investment, improve the efficiency and quality of economic growth to provide theoretical basis. This paper combines the macroeconomic theory with the characteristics of China's national income statistical accounts, on the basis of redefining the formula of the total income of capital investment, firstly using the AMSZ test criterion. Taking whether the total income of capital investment exceeds the total investment as the criterion to judge whether the economy is dynamic or not, the paper tests the overall, regional, inter-provincial, industrial and industrial dynamic efficiency of China's capital investment. Secondly, the multiple regression model is used to test the dynamic efficiency of China's capital investment. The factors influencing the dynamic efficiency of Chinese capital investment are tested empirically. Finally, the countermeasures to improve the dynamic efficiency of Chinese capital investment are discussed. The main conclusions of this study are as follows: first, at the overall level, the dynamic efficiency of Chinese capital investment is divided into two stages: from 1994 to 2008, the net rate of return of Chinese capital investment is positive, and the economic operation is in a dynamic and efficient state; After 2009, the development of Chinese capital investment is invalid. Secondly, at the regional level, the regional and provincial differences in the dynamic efficiency of Chinese capital investment are obvious. From 1998 to 2008, the capital investment efficiency of only a few provinces in the western region was invalid. In 2009-2011, except for a few provinces in the east, the capital investment in most of the central and western provinces was in a dynamic invalid state. Third, at the industrial level, the dynamic efficiency of three industrial capital investment in China has the same overall changing trend, but there are significant differences between industries. The net rate of return on capital investment in the second industry is the highest, followed by the third industry, and the net return rate of the capital investment in the first industry is the lowest, and it is in a dynamic and invalid state after 2005. The dynamic efficiency of industrial capital investment is consistent with that of China as a whole, but the dynamic efficiency of capital investment varies greatly among different industries in industry. Fourthly, marketization process, urban-rural dual structure, capital-labor ratio, ratio of productive public expenditure and net rate of return on capital investment are negatively correlated, deviation of technological progress, accumulation of human capital and net rate of return on capital investment are positively correlated. Fifth, the countermeasures to improve the dynamic efficiency of capital investment include: continue to deepen the reform of the system, speed up the process of marketization, constantly optimize the industrial structure, change the dual economic structure, promote the transformation of the mode of economic growth and improve the quality of economic operation; We should actively give play to the function and decisive role of the market in the optimal allocation of resources, attach importance to technological progress and investment in human capital, and actively encourage foreign investment of domestic capital while attracting foreign investment.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.48

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