中韩两国房地产调控政策比较研究：8.31政策和国六条

发布时间：2019-01-15 07:34

【摘要】：进入2005年以来,韩中两国的房价都在快速飞涨,市民的居住可支付问题成了炙手可热的话题。为了阻止过度炒热房价,使住宅价格趋于合理化,两国均实施了房地产调控政策,例如韩国在2005年8月31日制定了《8.31》政策,中国则于2006年5月17日制定了《国六条》政策。这两个房地产政策虽然出自不同的国家,面对不同的市场,但是均以住宅价格合理化为目标,通过调整房地产转让税和贷款利率来改善市民居住问题。因此,本文主要对韩国的《8.31》政策和中国的《国六条》政策的细节进行对比分析,并通过时间数列分析来掌握两国在2005年到2011年间的住宅价格指数,进而讨论两种政策的可能的作用。根据目前已有的分析和讨论,韩国的《8.31》政策和中国的《国六条》政策均难看出实质性的效果。分析指出,《8.31》政策几乎无法解决住宅价格上涨问题,而《国六条》虽然在解决住宅问题上起到了一定的作用,但是其效果并不具备持久性。本论文以统计学的角度,通过时间序列来对比分析两者的影响力差异。论文使用3种统计方式。即,(1)通过住宅价格指数变化趋势来分析,(2)通过差分来分析住宅价格指数变化率趋势,(3)通过自相关分析,间接了解这两种政策的影响力。研究结果发现,《国六条》的自相关系数为阴数,而《8.31》政策的自相关系数则为阳数。由此可知,《国六条》与降低住宅价格的外因有关,《8.31》政策则与住宅价格上涨的外因相关。本研究,虽然不是对这两个政策的效性给出综合结论,但是,本文通过统计学来具体地比较分析两国的政策显得更为有意义。
[Abstract]:Since 2005, housing prices have skyrocketed in both countries, and affordability has become a hot topic. In order to prevent excessive speculation in house prices and rationalize housing prices, both countries have implemented real estate regulation policies. For example, South Korea formulated the < 8.31 > policy on August 31, 2005, and China made the "six articles" policy on May 17, 2006. Although these two real estate policies come from different countries and face different markets, they both aim at rationalizing housing prices to improve the housing problem by adjusting real estate transfer taxes and loan rates. Therefore, this paper mainly compares the details of South Korea's < 8.31 > policy and China's' six articles' policy, and through the time series analysis to master the housing price index of the two countries from 2005 to 2011. Then the possible role of the two policies is discussed. According to the existing analysis and discussion, it is difficult to see the substantial effect of the South Korean < 8.31 > policy and China's "National six Article > Policy". It is pointed out that the policy of < 8.31 > can hardly solve the problem of housing price rise, but the effect of the policy is not durable, although it has played a certain role in solving the housing problem. In this paper, the difference of influence between the two is analyzed through time series from a statistical point of view. Three statistical methods are used in this paper. That is, (1) to analyze the change trend of housing price index, (2) to analyze the trend of housing price index change rate through difference, (3) to understand indirectly the influence of these two policies through autocorrelation analysis. The results show that the autocorrelation coefficient of < 8.31 > policy is negative, while the autocorrelation coefficient of < 8.31 > policy is positive. It can be seen that the six items of China are related to the external cause of lowering the housing price, and the policy of < 8.31 > is related to the external cause of the rise of the housing price. Although this study does not give a comprehensive conclusion on the effectiveness of these two policies, it is more meaningful to compare and analyze the policies of the two countries through statistics.
【学位授予单位】：清华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;F299.312.6

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