政策不确定性与企业银行贷款

发布时间：2019-02-22 19:44

【摘要】：由于现行干部人事管理制度,官员变更事件成为衡量政策不确定性的合适指标。本文以1997~2013年31个省级(区市)行政区省长(市长、主席)、省(区市)委书记的变更事件以及除对应年份除金融行业外的所有A股上市企业的财务数据为样本,实证考察了由官员变更引起的政策不确定性与企业的银行贷款的关系。研究结果表明:官员变更引起的政策不确定性会显著减少上市企业的银行贷款,其中对短期贷款的影响更大,而当企业的产权性质不同时,二者的关系也会有所变化。另外,还从企业的投资与贷款的角度实证检验了官员变更引起的政策不确定性到上市企业银行贷款减少的渠道。本文研究拓展和丰富了政策不确定性与微观企业行为的相关文献,对进一步理解官员行为、完善金融市场制度以及企业管理发展都有很好帮助。
[Abstract]:As a result of the current cadre personnel management system, the official change event becomes the appropriate indicator to measure the policy uncertainty. This paper takes 31 provincial (district) prefects (mayors, chairmen), provincial (district) party secretaries and financial data of all A-share listed enterprises except the financial industry as samples. The relationship between the policy uncertainty caused by the change of officials and the bank loans of enterprises is investigated empirically. The results show that the policy uncertainty caused by the change of officials will significantly reduce the bank loans of listed enterprises, among which the impact on short-term loans will be greater, and the relationship between the two will also change when the property rights of enterprises are different. In addition, from the perspective of investment and loan of enterprises, the paper empirically tests the channel of policy uncertainty caused by the change of officials to the decline of bank loans of listed enterprises. This paper expands and enriches the literature on policy uncertainty and microenterprise behavior, which is helpful to further understand the behavior of officials, perfect the financial market system and the development of enterprise management.
【作者单位】：中南财经政法大学文澜学院;
【分类号】：F832.4

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