房价上涨、泡沫化程度与消费挤出
发布时间：2019-03-13 08:10
【摘要】：房价上涨对居民消费具有财富效应与挤出效应双重影响。利用中国2000—2015年30个省(自治区、直辖市)的数据进行实证分析,结果显示,房价上涨抑制了消费需求增长,但不同类型的房产价格上涨对消费需求的挤出效应是不同的。对消费的挤出效应从大到小依次为住宅商品房、商业商品房、办公商品房和工业商品房的价格上涨。进一步以房价收入比度量泡沫化程度并作为门限变量,研究其对挤出效应的影响,发现不论房价收入比高低,房价上涨均抑制了消费增长,但房价上涨对消费的挤出效应在房价收入比6.607两侧具有显著的门限效应,跨越门限值后挤出效应显著增强。
[Abstract]:The rising of house prices has both wealth effect and crowding out effect on residents' consumption. Based on the data from 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) in China from 2000 to 2015, the results show that the increase of house prices inhibits the growth of consumer demand, but the crowding-out effect of different types of property price increases on consumer demand is different. The crowding-out effect of consumption increases from large to small for residential commercial housing, office commodity housing and industrial commodity housing. Furthermore, taking the ratio of house price to income as a threshold variable to measure the degree of bubble formation, this paper studies its influence on extrusion effect, and finds that no matter whether the ratio of house price to income is high or low, the increase of house price can restrain the growth of consumption. However, the extrusion effect of house price increase on consumption has a significant threshold effect on both sides of the house price-income ratio of 6.607, and the extrusion effect after crossing the threshold value is significantly enhanced.
【作者单位】： 广西财经学院广西经济与金融研究院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金地区项目“广西沿海地区适应气候变化的障碍诊断及应对”(71363010) 广西哲学社会科学基金后期资助项目“提升我国中小城镇资源集聚能力研究”(14HQ032)
【分类号】：F299.23
[Abstract]:The rising of house prices has both wealth effect and crowding out effect on residents' consumption. Based on the data from 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) in China from 2000 to 2015, the results show that the increase of house prices inhibits the growth of consumer demand, but the crowding-out effect of different types of property price increases on consumer demand is different. The crowding-out effect of consumption increases from large to small for residential commercial housing, office commodity housing and industrial commodity housing. Furthermore, taking the ratio of house price to income as a threshold variable to measure the degree of bubble formation, this paper studies its influence on extrusion effect, and finds that no matter whether the ratio of house price to income is high or low, the increase of house price can restrain the growth of consumption. However, the extrusion effect of house price increase on consumption has a significant threshold effect on both sides of the house price-income ratio of 6.607, and the extrusion effect after crossing the threshold value is significantly enhanced.
【作者单位】： 广西财经学院广西经济与金融研究院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金地区项目“广西沿海地区适应气候变化的障碍诊断及应对”(71363010) 广西哲学社会科学基金后期资助项目“提升我国中小城镇资源集聚能力研究”(14HQ032)
【分类号】：F299.23
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