俄罗斯资源禀赋与经济增长关系的实证研究
发布时间：2019-04-01 15:45
【摘要】：长期以来自然资源对经济发展的影响在学术界一直以为是正面的,但是进入上世纪六七十年代,许多资源丰裕的国家并没有得到持久的快速发展,反而比资源相对匮乏的地区发展的速度缓慢很多,由此学术界发现了“资源诅咒”这一现象。俄罗斯作为世界上能源资源最丰裕的国家,每年出口大量的石油和天然气等自然资源,现阶段的经济发展也严重依赖能源出口,人们不禁要问,俄罗斯的资源禀赋与经济增长的关系如何,是否出现了 “资源诅咒”问题。本文主要研究俄罗斯资源禀赋与经济增长之间的关系,从多个角度分析资源禀赋对于俄罗斯来讲是福祉还是诅咒。首先是基于投入产出表的相关理论和数据,实证分析代表资源禀赋的采掘业对俄罗斯经济增长的贡献,主要分析了采掘业对于经济增长的直接贡献和间接贡献,同时又将间接贡献分为推动作用和拉动作用,多角度地分析采掘业对于俄罗斯经济增长的作用。在此基础上,进一步利用投入产出表的平衡关系,分析了采掘业出口对于俄罗斯经济的影响。这一部分的分析就是在充分考虑了俄罗斯大量出口资源性产品并带来大量的外汇收入,是其GDP的重要来源之一。这一部分主要实证分析了出口对俄罗斯GDP总量和GDP增长率的贡献,以及分产业分析了各个产业对GDP总量和GDP增长率的贡献,从实证角度证实了采掘业对俄罗斯经济总量和经济增长的贡献居于54个产业的首位。那么,资源禀赋对于俄罗斯经济增长具有如此重要的作用,那么俄罗斯是否存在资源诅咒问题呢。本文的第三部分就是使用检验资源诅咒的经典模型,采用俄罗斯2003-2015年的78个区域的面板数据进行了实证检验。实证结果显示,在俄罗斯的区域范围内存在资源诅咒问题,也就是说资源丰裕与经济增长呈负相关变化。最后,探讨了俄罗斯摆脱资源依赖性经济,调整经济结构的一些建议,以及中俄经济合作的一些建议。
[Abstract]:The impact of natural resources on economic development has long been thought to be positive in the academic world, but in the 1960s and 1970s, many of the rich countries did not have sustained and rapid development, but rather than the relatively scarce resources of the resources, the speed of development was much slower, The academic community has thus found a "resource curse" of this phenomenon. Russia, as the most abundant country in the world's energy resources, exports a large amount of natural resources such as oil and natural gas every year. At the present stage, economic development is also heavily dependent on energy exports. People can't help wondering how the relationship between resource endowment and economic growth in Russia, A "resource curse" problem has occurred. This paper mainly studies the relationship between Russian resource endowment and economic growth, and analyzes resource endowment from multiple angles to be well-being or curse to Russia. Firstly, based on the relevant theories and data of the input-output table, the paper makes an empirical analysis of the contribution of the extractive industries to the economic growth of Russia, and mainly analyzes the direct contribution and indirect contribution of the extractive industries to the economic growth, while the indirect contribution is divided into the pushing action and the pulling effect. The role of extractive industries in the economic growth of Russia is analyzed in a multi-angle manner. On this basis, the influence of the export of the extractive industries on the Russian economy is analyzed by using the balance of the input-output table. The analysis of this part is one of the important sources of China's GDP, taking fully into account the large number of export-related products in Russia and the large amount of foreign exchange earnings. This part mainly analyzes the contribution of the export to the total GDP and the GDP growth rate, and the contribution of the industry to the total GDP and the GDP growth rate. From the positive point of view, the contribution of extractive industries to the total economic and economic growth of Russia is the first of the 54 industries. So, if the endowment of resources plays an important role in the economic growth of Russia, there is a problem of resource curse in Russia. The third part of this paper is to use the classical model of checking the resource curse, using the panel data of the 78 areas of Russia in 2003-2015 to carry out the empirical test. The empirical results show that there is a problem of resource curse in the region of Russia, that is, there is a negative correlation between resource abundance and economic growth. Finally, this paper discusses some suggestions of Russia's free-from-resource-dependent economy, the adjustment of the economic structure, and some of the suggestions for Sino-Russian economic cooperation.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F151.2
本文编号：2451674
[Abstract]:The impact of natural resources on economic development has long been thought to be positive in the academic world, but in the 1960s and 1970s, many of the rich countries did not have sustained and rapid development, but rather than the relatively scarce resources of the resources, the speed of development was much slower, The academic community has thus found a "resource curse" of this phenomenon. Russia, as the most abundant country in the world's energy resources, exports a large amount of natural resources such as oil and natural gas every year. At the present stage, economic development is also heavily dependent on energy exports. People can't help wondering how the relationship between resource endowment and economic growth in Russia, A "resource curse" problem has occurred. This paper mainly studies the relationship between Russian resource endowment and economic growth, and analyzes resource endowment from multiple angles to be well-being or curse to Russia. Firstly, based on the relevant theories and data of the input-output table, the paper makes an empirical analysis of the contribution of the extractive industries to the economic growth of Russia, and mainly analyzes the direct contribution and indirect contribution of the extractive industries to the economic growth, while the indirect contribution is divided into the pushing action and the pulling effect. The role of extractive industries in the economic growth of Russia is analyzed in a multi-angle manner. On this basis, the influence of the export of the extractive industries on the Russian economy is analyzed by using the balance of the input-output table. The analysis of this part is one of the important sources of China's GDP, taking fully into account the large number of export-related products in Russia and the large amount of foreign exchange earnings. This part mainly analyzes the contribution of the export to the total GDP and the GDP growth rate, and the contribution of the industry to the total GDP and the GDP growth rate. From the positive point of view, the contribution of extractive industries to the total economic and economic growth of Russia is the first of the 54 industries. So, if the endowment of resources plays an important role in the economic growth of Russia, there is a problem of resource curse in Russia. The third part of this paper is to use the classical model of checking the resource curse, using the panel data of the 78 areas of Russia in 2003-2015 to carry out the empirical test. The empirical results show that there is a problem of resource curse in the region of Russia, that is, there is a negative correlation between resource abundance and economic growth. Finally, this paper discusses some suggestions of Russia's free-from-resource-dependent economy, the adjustment of the economic structure, and some of the suggestions for Sino-Russian economic cooperation.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F151.2
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