社会人口年龄分布离散程度对产品创新的影响分析

发布时间：2018-01-30 10:18

本文关键词： 人口年龄分布离散程度产品创新　出处：《山东大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文通过研究人口年龄分布与企业产品创新行为的内在联系去探寻人口年龄分布离散程度对产品创新的影响,人口年龄分布离散程度和企业产品创新投入是本文的两个核心变量。正文分阶段逐步联系两个核心变量,先将人口年龄离散程度内化于人口分布函数,并得到人口年龄离散程度与中间变量的等式关系;再通过人口分布函数与年龄差异化效用函数得到市场对新产品的预期需求,在不考虑新产品边际成本的前提下,能够得到包含中间变量的企业预期盈利最大化时的产量与盈利水平;之后利用创新的概率分布函数将创新投入与创新概率分布联系起来,再利用连续贴现模型与Cournot模型导出了包含中间变量的企业产品创新预期盈利现值;结合之前得出的人口年龄离散程度与中间变量的等式关系,能最终得到表示人口年龄离散程度与企业产品创新投入两者联系的方程组;再利用MATLAB7.0软件消去中间变量,得到两核心变量的直接关系并作图,结合图组可以得出基于模型分析的结论;最后对模型进行部分拓展,将企业产品创新行为整合为行业产品创新行为。之后对搜集的数据集进行平稳性检验、Hausman检验、固定效应模型回归,验证了理论模型的结果并得到最终结论:当人口年龄分布离散程度不高时,其增加对产品创新有较强的刺激作用,当人口年龄分布离散程度较高并超过临界值时,产品创新会陷入低谷。目前我国人口年龄分布离散程度较低,尚处于且会长期处于人口年龄分布离散程度提升促进产品创新的阶段。另外,还就竞争程度、研发效率、实际利率等对产品创新的影响进行了研究探讨。本文的结论能够对我国的人口政策、产业创新政策、知识产权保护政策等提供一些建议,有利于我国更好实施创新驱动发展战略,早日迈出"中等收入陷阱",实现伟大的中国梦!本文的创新点有三:(1)研究角度新颖,创造性地从人口年龄分布离散程度出发来研究产品创新,与之前文献大都从厂商行为等供给侧或收入水平、收入差距等需求侧出发对产品创新进行研究的方向不同,并结合人口年龄分布离散程度和企业产品创新投入关系拓展出人口年龄分布离散程度对行业产品创新的影响;文章结论同样具有创新价值,提供了一种从人口年龄分布来考虑产品创新的思路。(2)创造性构建人口年龄分布的幂函数模型,并据此利用数学期望方法和分布函数对应的密度函数将人口分布离散程度与人口年龄分布函数对应起来,接着以此为基础构建起整个理论模型框架。(3)在处理数据上,对细分的人口年龄数据平滑化处理后模拟出近似的人口年龄分布,并据此进行计算2003-2013年人口年龄分布离散程度,为实证分析过程提供了数据基础。
[Abstract]:This paper studies the relationship between population age distribution and enterprise product innovation behavior to explore the effect of population age distribution dispersion on product innovation. The discrete degree of population age distribution and enterprise product innovation input are the two core variables in this paper. The equality relationship between population age dispersion and intermediate variable is obtained. Then through the population distribution function and the age difference utility function to obtain the market expected demand for the new product without considering the marginal cost of the new product. We can get the output and profit level of the expected profit maximization of the enterprise with intermediate variables. Then the innovation input and the innovation probability distribution are connected by the probability distribution function of innovation. Then using the continuous discount model and Cournot model to derive the expected profit present value of enterprise product innovation including intermediate variables; Combining the equation relation between population age dispersion degree and intermediate variable, we can get the equations which indicate the relationship between population age dispersion degree and enterprise product innovation input. Then the intermediate variable is eliminated by MATLAB7.0 software, and the direct relationship between the two core variables is obtained and the graph group is used to draw the conclusion based on the model analysis. Finally, the model is partially expanded to integrate the enterprise product innovation behavior into the industry product innovation behavior. Then the collected data sets are tested by Hausman test and fixed effect model regression. Verify the results of the theoretical model and get the final conclusion: when the dispersion of population age distribution is not high, its increase has a strong stimulating effect on product innovation. When the discrete degree of population age distribution is higher than the critical value, product innovation will fall into a trough. At present, the dispersion degree of population age distribution in China is relatively low. In addition, it is still in the stage of promoting product innovation in terms of the discrete degree of population age distribution and the degree of competition and R & D efficiency. The effect of real interest rate on product innovation is discussed. The conclusion of this paper can provide some suggestions for China's population policy, industrial innovation policy, intellectual property protection policy and so on. This will help our country better implement the strategy of innovation-driven development, step out the "middle-income trap" as soon as possible, and realize the great Chinese Dream! The innovation of this paper is 3: 1) the research angle is new and creative to study product innovation from the discrete degree of population age distribution, and most of the previous literatures are based on the supply-side or income level of firm behavior. The research direction of product innovation is different from the demand side such as income gap. Combined with the discrete degree of population age distribution and the relationship between enterprise product innovation investment, the influence of population age distribution dispersion degree on industry product innovation is extended. The conclusion of the paper is also of innovative value, which provides a creative power function model of population age distribution considering product innovation from the age distribution of population. On the basis of this, the discrete degree of population distribution and the population age distribution function are corresponded by the mathematical expectation method and the density function corresponding to the distribution function. Based on this, the whole theoretical model framework is constructed. (3) on the data processing, the approximate population age distribution is simulated after smoothing the subdivided population age data. The discrete degree of population age distribution from 2003 to 2013 is calculated, which provides a data basis for the empirical analysis.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924;F273.1

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