企业债券违约财务预警多案例研究

发布时间：2018-02-25 18:19

本文关键词： 债券违约财务预警预警阈值　出处：《北方工业大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国债券市场的快速发展,债券作为一种直接融资方式,其作用越来越重要。目前,我国债市规模的存量相当于股票市场的五倍之多。在全球经济不景气和我国经济进入"新常态"的宏观背景下,我国债券市场中的"刚性兑付"神话被打破,多起债券违约事件相继爆出,违约主体多样,涉及所有债券品种,违约金额规模庞大,引起了经济领域的广泛关注和部分投资者的恐慌。债券发生实质性违约给投资者带来巨大损失,对债券违约的财务预警体系展开研究,意义重大。本文将债券违约作为财务危机的一种表现,从投资者的角度对债券违约企业的经营状况和财务状况进行剖析,发现其问题,总结其违约特征,构建一套财务预警体系,从而为投资者有效防范债券违约风险提供参考。本文在对我国债券市场发展及债券市场违约现状进行归纳的基础上,选取了7家典型违约企业作为案例研究的对象,从行业、公司战略、会计、财务、公司治理、外部评级意见等角度对债券违约企业的违约特征进行归纳对比分析;在此基础上,构建了一套财务预警体系,并选取了一家违约企业进行了验证,结果表示预警体系有效。最后,本文提出了相关政策建议。本文以哈佛分析框架为基础对债券违约企业的违约特征进行分析,得出了以下结论:第一,债券违约具有一定的阶段性、过程性,违约企业的经营状况是不断恶化的过程,因此在违约前会存在一定的财务轨迹。第二,债券违约企业在违约前表现的具体特征有:(1)宏观经济下行;(2)企业所处行业产能过剩且顺经济周期;(3)企业多采取扩张型或多元化发展战略;(4)企业信息披露不及时,会计质量存疑;(5)财务报告审计意见为非标准审计意见;(6)企业Z-score值处于破产区间;(7)财务指标逐年恶化,同行业均值相比也比较逊色,权益总额减少,现金流入不敷出;(8)企业公司治理结构混乱,大股东剥离行为、股权之争、高管变动影响企业经营;(9)外部评级意见逐渐下调。第三,债券违约现象具有规律性、可预测性,能够建立一套财务预警体系。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's bond market, the role of bonds as a direct financing method is becoming more and more important. The stock of China's bond market is five times as large as that of the stock market. Under the background of the global economic downturn and the entry of the "new normal" in our country's economy, the myth of "rigid payment" in our bond market has been broken. A number of bond defaults have occurred one after another, with a variety of defaulters, involving all kinds of bonds, and a large amount of default. This has caused widespread concern in the economic field and panic among some investors. Substantial bond defaults have brought huge losses to investors. The financial early warning system for bond defaults has been studied. This paper takes bond default as a manifestation of financial crisis, analyzes the operating and financial status of bond defaulting enterprises from the perspective of investors, finds out its problems, and summarizes its default characteristics. In order to provide a reference for investors to guard against the risk of bond default effectively, this paper sums up the development of bond market and the current situation of bond market default in China. Selected 7 typical defaulting enterprises as the object of case study, from the industry, corporate strategy, accounting, finance, corporate governance, external rating opinions and other perspectives to analyze the default characteristics of bond defaulting enterprises; on the basis of this, A set of financial early warning system is constructed, and a defaulting enterprise is selected to verify it. The result shows that the early warning system is effective. Finally, Based on the Harvard analysis framework, this paper analyzes the default characteristics of bond defaulting enterprises, and draws the following conclusions: first, bond default has a certain stage and process. The operating condition of the defaulting enterprise is a process of continuous deterioration, so there will be a certain financial track before the default. Second, The specific characteristics of bond defaulting enterprises before default are as follows: 1) macroeconomic downturn. 2) overcapacity in the industries in which the enterprises are located and 3) enterprises adopt expansionary or diversified development strategies. 4) Enterprise information disclosure is not timely. Accounting quality is doubtful. 5) the audit opinion of financial report is non-standard audit opinion. (6) the Z-score value of enterprises is in the bankruptcy interval / 7) the financial index is deteriorating year by year, compared with the average value of the industry, it is also inferior to the average value of the industry, and the total amount of equity is reduced. (8) the corporate governance structure is chaotic, the behavior of major shareholders divestiture, the dispute of stock ownership, the change of senior management affect the management of the enterprise and the external rating opinions are gradually downgraded. Third, the phenomenon of bond default is regular and predictable. Can establish a set of financial early warning system.
【学位授予单位】：北方工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F275;F832.51

【参考文献】