政策不确定性、会计信息质量与银行信贷合约——基于民营企业的经验证据

发布时间：2018-05-12 14:31

  本文选题：政治权力转移 + 银行信贷　； 参考：《中国软科学》2016年11期

【摘要】：本文以2004-2012年民营企业为研究对象,考察了市委书记更替带来的政策不确定性对银行信贷合约结构的影响。研究发现,面临政策不确定性时,民营企业获得银行信用借款的比例显著降低,担保借款比例显著提高,体现了政治权力转移的不确定性风险假说;随着政府质量、法律保护的提高和完善,政治权力转移带来的不确定性风险降低,对银行信贷合约的影响减弱。进一步研究发现,政策不确定性与银行信贷的负相关关系在官员异地调任和外地籍贯、以及无政治关联和管制行业中更为显著。政策不确定性影响银行信贷合约的机制是提高了企业债务违约风险,而高质量的会计信息能够缓解政治权力转移带来的不确定性风险,降低银行信贷合约违约概率。本文研究结论为理解外部宏观政治环境对微观企业行为的影响提供了新视角,有助于深化理解政商关系的互动机制;同时,也有助于从制度层面理解会计信息的商业决策机制。
[Abstract]:This paper, taking 2004-2012 years of private enterprises as the research object, investigates the influence of the policy uncertainty brought by the replacement of the Party committee secretaries on the structure of the bank credit contract. It is found that, when the policy uncertainty is confronted with the policy uncertainty, the proportion of the private enterprises to obtain the bank credit is significantly reduced, the proportion of the guarantee loan is significantly increased, and the political power transfer is reflected. The uncertainty risk hypothesis; with the quality of the government, the improvement and improvement of the legal protection, the uncertainty of the political power transfer is reduced and the impact on the bank credit contract is weakened. Further research has found that the negative correlation between policy uncertainty and bank credit is in the place of official position and foreign origin, as well as no political connection. The mechanism of policy uncertainty affecting the bank credit contract is to improve the risk of debt default, while high quality accounting information can alleviate the uncertainty caused by the transfer of political power and reduce the probability of default in the bank credit contract. The impact of corporate behavior provides a new perspective and helps to deepen the understanding of the interaction mechanism of the relationship between business and business. At the same time, it also helps to understand the business decision-making mechanism of accounting information from the institutional level.

【作者单位】： 对外经济贸易大学国际财务与会计研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71272041) 教育部人文社会科学研究规划项目(11YJA630085) 对外经济贸易大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(CXTD5-02)
【分类号】：F275;F276.5
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本文编号：1878977