全球视野下中国研发投入强度的演变态势分析与预测吴丹

发布时间：2018-06-24 02:07

本文选题：研发投入强度 + 规律　；参考：《科技管理研究》2017年03期

【摘要】：探讨研发投入强度的演变规律,分析全球研发投入强度的变化趋势,总结中国研发投入强度的变化特征,确定中国研发投入强度的影响制约因素;采用GM(1,1)等维新息模型和趋势预测模型的组合预测模型预测"十三五"时期中国的研发经费支出,采用趋势预测法和多情景模拟预测法的组合预测模型对"十三五"时期中国的研发投入强度进行模拟预测,并从政府和企业研发投入角度提出保障实现2020年中国科技发展规划目标的政策建议。研究结果表明,从国际上看,多数创新型国家的科技发展在工业化初级阶段和工业化中级阶段带有政府主导的特征,政府RD资金所占的比重大多超过40%。与国际相比,我国RD经费中政府RD资金所占的比重偏少,中国研发投入强度没有达到预期目标、偏离了研发投入强度的演变规律,且滞后于当前工业化程度,虽然我国政府对RD经费的投入在逐年增加,但2003—2013年的10年间,我国政府的RD经费支出占总量的比重仅达到20%~30%左右。"十三五"时期,我国在继续加大政府和企业RD经费支出的基础上,预计2020年研发投入强度将超过2.5%的预期目标,达到2.6%~2.7%左右,中国有望从"世界科技大国"转变为"世界科技强国"。
[Abstract]:This paper discusses the evolution law of R & D investment intensity, analyzes the trend of global R & D investment intensity, summarizes the characteristics of Chinese R & D investment intensity, and determines the influencing factors of Chinese R & D investment intensity. The combined forecasting model of GM (1 / 1) and trend forecasting model is used to forecast the expenditure of R & D expenditure in China during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. The combined forecasting model of trend forecasting method and multi-scenario simulation forecasting method is used to simulate and forecast the R & D investment intensity in China during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. From the angle of government and enterprise R & D investment, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to ensure the realization of the goal of China's scientific and technological development planning in 2020. The results show that in most innovative countries, the development of science and technology in the primary and intermediate stages of industrialization has the characteristics of government leading, and the proportion of government R D funds is more than 40%. Compared with the international, the proportion of government R D funds in our country is on the low side. The R & D investment intensity of China has not reached the expected goal, which deviates from the evolution law of R & D investment intensity, and lags behind the current industrialization degree. Although our government's investment in R & D funds is increasing year by year, in the 10 years from 2003 to 2013, the proportion of government R D expenditure in the total amount has only reached about 20% or 30%. " During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, on the basis of continuing to increase government and enterprise R & D expenditure, it is estimated that the intensity of R & D investment in 2020 will exceed the expected target of 2.5%, reaching about 2.66% or 2.7%. China is expected to change from a world-wide scientific and technological power to a world-wide scientific and technological power.
【作者单位】：北方工业大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“三条红线刚性约束下流域初始水权分配模式与优化分配模型研究”(71603004) 北方工业大学-清华大学合作项目“初始水权分配技术与制度创新研究”(20160099) 双培计划新兴专业建设(中央资金)基金项目“互联网物流”(16013) 北方工业大学青年拔尖人才培育计划项目“协调发展视角下京津冀科技资源配置效率评价体系研究”(17026)
【分类号】：F273.1

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