网络口碑对产品销量的影响:基于细粒度的情感分析方法

发布时间：2018-06-27 15:28

本文选题：网络口碑 + 销量预测　；参考：《管理评论》2017年01期

【摘要】：随着在线点评系统的发展,网络口碑成为消费者购买决策的重要参考依据,并对产品销量产生影响。护肤品销量受口碑效应的影响显著,为此以护肤品为例,基于细粒度情感分析技术,从网络口碑中提取针对产品特征项的消费者主客观情感,根据词汇频数设计细粒度情感各维度的权重指数,构建细粒度综合情感指数。然后,以综合情感指数和消费者评分为情感变量,结合ARMA模型对产品的销量预测进行实证分析。与基准模型对比,发现加入了情感变量的销量预测模型提高了对数据的拟合能力,细粒度情感指数有较高的预测精度。而消费者评分在某些节点上也具有一定的预测能力,但整体预测效果并不理想。研究也表明,以月度为观察周期构建的网络口碑综合情感指数具有较好的预测效果,综合情感指数滞后1期时能提供最好的预测效果,滞后1-4期时能为销量预测起作用。
[Abstract]:With the development of online comment system, online word-of-mouth has become an important reference for consumers to make purchase decisions and has an impact on product sales. The sales volume of skin care products is significantly affected by the word-of-mouth effect. For this reason, taking skin care products as an example, based on fine-grained emotion analysis technology, consumers' subjective and objective emotions for product characteristics are extracted from online word-of-mouth. According to the vocabulary frequency, the weight index of each dimension of fine-grained emotion is designed, and the fine-grained comprehensive emotion index is constructed. Then, with the comprehensive emotion index and the consumer score as the emotional variables, combined with the ARMA model to predict the sales volume of the product for empirical analysis. Compared with the benchmark model, it is found that the sales forecasting model with affective variables improves the ability of fitting the data, and the fine-grained emotion index has a higher prediction accuracy. And the consumer score also has certain prediction ability in some nodes, but the overall prediction effect is not ideal. The study also shows that the comprehensive emotion index of network word-of-mouth constructed with monthly observation cycle has a good prediction effect. When the comprehensive emotion index is delayed by 1 period, it can provide the best prediction effect, and the lag of 1-4 periods can play an important role in the prediction of sales volume.
【作者单位】：同济大学经济与管理学院;华侨大学工商管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71371144;71601119;71601082) 上海市哲学社会科学规划课题一般项目(2013BGL004) 江西省教育厅科学技术研究课题一般项目(GJJ150783)
【分类号】：F724.6;F416.72;F274

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