重大资产重组业绩承诺与分析师盈余预测准确性
发布时间：2018-09-10 15:53
【摘要】：并购重组是企业实施外延扩张战略、增强核心竞争力、提振公司业绩的主要手段之一。作为并购方案的核心交易条款,业绩承诺有助于降低交易双方的信息不对称,被越来越多的并购交易所采用。但现实中承诺业绩不达标的现象屡见不鲜,并直接影响上市公司的总体业绩和股价波动,损害了中小投资者利益。那么,在此之前的预先研判就显得尤为重要。卖方分析师作为证券市场的信息中介,通过盈余预测为投资者提供关于企业价值的信息,影响其投资决策和资本市场的资源配置。对重大并购公司的研究过程中,分析师如何解读业绩承诺信息必然在很大程度上影响其盈余预测、估值模型和投资建议。本文以2011-2015年我国A股市场发生的重大重组事件为样本,运用实证研究方法,较为系统地研究了重大资产重组中的业绩承诺对分析师预测准确性的影响,上市公司股权结构对这一关系的调节作用,以及分析师对业绩承诺的主动识别能力对其预测质量的影响。研究结果发现,与没有业绩承诺的重组样本相比,有业绩承诺的情形下,分析师的盈余预测更准确。在有业绩承诺的样本中,业绩承诺方式和补偿方式也会对分析师预测产生显著影响:双向对赌的业绩承诺和现金补偿方式更能提升分析师预测准确性。进一步的研究发现,公司的股权结构对业绩承诺与分析师预测的相关性起到调节作用,良好的股权制衡能够显著提升业绩承诺对分析师预测准确性的正向影响,这种结果在关联交易的样本中更加显著。本文还从分析师自身的视角,研究分析师对业绩承诺的信任度对其预测准确性的影响。研究发现,如果分析师在业绩承诺披露后进行较大的盈余预测修正,其预测准确性不仅没有提升,反而有所降低,这或许和分析师过度信赖导致的乐观性偏差有关。本文首次将业绩承诺与分析师预测的关系纳入同一个框架内进行研究,为分析师预测行为的影响机制提供了新的经验证据,而且有助于监管部门了解业绩承诺制度对资本市场参与者的现实影响,并对中小投资者利益保护有一定的启示意义。
[Abstract]:M & A is one of the main means for enterprises to implement extension expansion strategy, strengthen core competitiveness and boost corporate performance. As the core trading clause of M & A schemes, performance commitment helps to reduce the information asymmetry between the two parties and is adopted by more and more M & A exchanges. However, it is common to promise that the performance is not up to the standard in reality, which directly affects the overall performance and stock price fluctuation of listed companies, and damages the interests of small and medium-sized investors. In that case, it is particularly important to study in advance. As the information intermediary of the securities market, the seller's analyst provides investors with information on the enterprise's value through earnings forecasting, which affects their investment decision and the resource allocation of the capital market. How analysts interpret performance commitments in the course of a study of major mergers and acquisitions is bound to have a significant impact on earnings forecasts, valuation models and investment advice. Taking the major restructuring events in China's A-share market from 2011-2015 as a sample and using empirical research methods, this paper systematically studies the impact of performance commitments in major asset restructuring on the accuracy of analysts' forecasts. The influence of the equity structure of listed companies on this relationship and the ability of analysts to identify their performance commitments on the quality of their forecasts. The study found that analysts' earnings forecasts were more accurate with performance commitments than with a restructuring sample without performance commitments. In a sample of performance commitments, performance commitment and compensation also have a significant impact on analysts' forecasts: a two-way bet on performance commitments and cash compensation is more likely to improve the accuracy of analysts' forecasts. Further research found that the equity structure of the company can regulate the correlation between the performance commitment and the analyst forecast, and the good equity balance can significantly improve the positive impact of the performance commitment on the accuracy of the analyst forecast. This result is more significant in the sample of related party transactions. From the perspective of the analysts themselves, this paper also studies the impact of the confidence in the performance commitment on the accuracy of their forecasts. The study found that if analysts made larger earnings forecast revisions after their earnings commitments were disclosed, the accuracy of their forecasts would not have improved, but had been reduced, perhaps because of the bias of optimism caused by analysts' over-reliance. For the first time, the relationship between the performance commitment and the analyst forecast is studied in the same framework, which provides new empirical evidence for the influence mechanism of the analyst's forecast behavior. Moreover, it is helpful for regulators to understand the actual impact of performance commitment system on capital market participants, and has certain enlightenment significance for the protection of the interests of small and medium-sized investors.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F275;F832.51
，
本文编号：2234908
[Abstract]:M & A is one of the main means for enterprises to implement extension expansion strategy, strengthen core competitiveness and boost corporate performance. As the core trading clause of M & A schemes, performance commitment helps to reduce the information asymmetry between the two parties and is adopted by more and more M & A exchanges. However, it is common to promise that the performance is not up to the standard in reality, which directly affects the overall performance and stock price fluctuation of listed companies, and damages the interests of small and medium-sized investors. In that case, it is particularly important to study in advance. As the information intermediary of the securities market, the seller's analyst provides investors with information on the enterprise's value through earnings forecasting, which affects their investment decision and the resource allocation of the capital market. How analysts interpret performance commitments in the course of a study of major mergers and acquisitions is bound to have a significant impact on earnings forecasts, valuation models and investment advice. Taking the major restructuring events in China's A-share market from 2011-2015 as a sample and using empirical research methods, this paper systematically studies the impact of performance commitments in major asset restructuring on the accuracy of analysts' forecasts. The influence of the equity structure of listed companies on this relationship and the ability of analysts to identify their performance commitments on the quality of their forecasts. The study found that analysts' earnings forecasts were more accurate with performance commitments than with a restructuring sample without performance commitments. In a sample of performance commitments, performance commitment and compensation also have a significant impact on analysts' forecasts: a two-way bet on performance commitments and cash compensation is more likely to improve the accuracy of analysts' forecasts. Further research found that the equity structure of the company can regulate the correlation between the performance commitment and the analyst forecast, and the good equity balance can significantly improve the positive impact of the performance commitment on the accuracy of the analyst forecast. This result is more significant in the sample of related party transactions. From the perspective of the analysts themselves, this paper also studies the impact of the confidence in the performance commitment on the accuracy of their forecasts. The study found that if analysts made larger earnings forecast revisions after their earnings commitments were disclosed, the accuracy of their forecasts would not have improved, but had been reduced, perhaps because of the bias of optimism caused by analysts' over-reliance. For the first time, the relationship between the performance commitment and the analyst forecast is studied in the same framework, which provides new empirical evidence for the influence mechanism of the analyst's forecast behavior. Moreover, it is helpful for regulators to understand the actual impact of performance commitment system on capital market participants, and has certain enlightenment significance for the protection of the interests of small and medium-sized investors.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F275;F832.51
，
本文编号：2234908
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