考虑状态转换的最优战略调整决策与企业价值研究
发布时间：2019-03-13 13:44
【摘要】：宏观经济的变化影响企业战略实施效果,本文构建以状态转换强度为影响因素的企业战略调整优化决策模型.运用随机动态最优控制方法,得到两状态下企业价值解析解,企业当前价值、增长期权和托宾Q分析解,以及相应的最优投资策略.理论研究和数值模拟表明:战略状态不影响企业最优战略调整时机,但影响最优投资支出,高战略水平时,企业生产率更高,为达到并维持企业最优资本结构,企业的投资支出增多;状态转换强度影响企业最优战略调整时机、战略调整瞬时的投资支出、托宾Q值和增长期权-企业价值比值;特别地,相对战略水平阈值是转换概率的单调递增函数,转换概率越大,相对战略水平阈值越大,企业保持当前战略的时间越长.总之,考虑状态转换能够改善未考虑状态转换时制定的战略调整决策和相应投资策略.
[Abstract]:The change of macro-economy affects the effect of enterprise strategy implementation. In this paper, the optimal decision-making model of enterprise strategy adjustment based on the intensity of state transition is established. By using the stochastic dynamic optimal control method, the analytical solution of the enterprise value, the current value of the enterprise, the growth option and Tobin Q analysis solution, and the corresponding optimal investment strategy are obtained. Theoretical research and numerical simulation show that the strategic state does not affect the optimal strategic adjustment opportunity, but affects the optimal investment expenditure. When the strategic level is high, the productivity of the enterprise is higher, in order to achieve and maintain the optimal capital structure of the enterprise, The investment expenditure of enterprises increases; The intensity of state transition affects the optimal timing of strategic adjustment, instantaneous investment expenditure, Tobin Q value and growth option-enterprise value ratio. In particular, the threshold of relative strategic level is a monotone increasing function of transition probability. The larger the conversion probability is, the greater the threshold of relative strategic level is, and the longer the time for enterprises to maintain the current strategy. In a word, considering the state transition can improve the strategic adjustment decision and the corresponding investment strategy when the state transition is not considered.
【作者单位】： 湖南大学工商管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金创新研究群体(71521061);国家自然科学基金(71571065) 国家自然科学青年基金(71501065) 国家社科基金(12CGL023)~~
【分类号】：F275
本文编号：2439437
[Abstract]:The change of macro-economy affects the effect of enterprise strategy implementation. In this paper, the optimal decision-making model of enterprise strategy adjustment based on the intensity of state transition is established. By using the stochastic dynamic optimal control method, the analytical solution of the enterprise value, the current value of the enterprise, the growth option and Tobin Q analysis solution, and the corresponding optimal investment strategy are obtained. Theoretical research and numerical simulation show that the strategic state does not affect the optimal strategic adjustment opportunity, but affects the optimal investment expenditure. When the strategic level is high, the productivity of the enterprise is higher, in order to achieve and maintain the optimal capital structure of the enterprise, The investment expenditure of enterprises increases; The intensity of state transition affects the optimal timing of strategic adjustment, instantaneous investment expenditure, Tobin Q value and growth option-enterprise value ratio. In particular, the threshold of relative strategic level is a monotone increasing function of transition probability. The larger the conversion probability is, the greater the threshold of relative strategic level is, and the longer the time for enterprises to maintain the current strategy. In a word, considering the state transition can improve the strategic adjustment decision and the corresponding investment strategy when the state transition is not considered.
【作者单位】： 湖南大学工商管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金创新研究群体(71521061);国家自然科学基金(71571065) 国家自然科学青年基金(71501065) 国家社科基金(12CGL023)~~
【分类号】：F275
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