中兴通讯股权价值评估案例分析

发布时间：2018-02-13 10:14

本文关键词： 价值评估股权价值战略财务分析自由现金流量　出处：《山东大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,国内外金融市场风起云涌,跌宕起伏,大规模的并购活动层出不穷。同时,随着科学技术的发展,金融产品的类别成千上万,投资平台更是在互联网的助力下数不胜数。总之,金融环境更加错综复杂。在这样的背景下,选择合适的投资对象需要更多科学的分析和准确的评估。因此,对虚拟商品的价值评估成了投资者迫切关注的问题。制造业是国民经济的支柱,通讯设备制造板块是制造业的重要组成部分。另外,从市值、营业收入、市场占有率、产品线等多个方面分析,中兴通讯都是通讯设备制造业的典型代表。因此,本文以中兴通讯为研究对象,运用案例研究法与文献研究法对中兴通讯的股权价值进行了评估。文章首先介绍了价值评估的方法及理论,对每种方法的含义、特点及适用范围进行了分析,为下文的具体运用作铺垫。接着讲述了中兴通讯的基本情况及通讯设备制造业的现状和特征,加深我们对公司概况和行业背景的掌握。随后对中兴通讯的战略财务分析让我们了解了公司的偿债能力、盈利能力和营运能力以及公司初步战略的合理性和执行情况。最后,结合战略财务分析的结果,运用现金流折现法对公司的股权价值进行了评估,得出了较市场交易价格更为积极的结果。本文在计算中兴通讯的自由现金流时,将企业的资产和负债从经营和金融的角度进行了区分,重新编制了管理用财务报表。中兴通讯是一家通讯设备制造企业,企业的正常运转是在产品和要素市场上进行,价值的创造符合传统制造业的特征,与资本市场上的投融资活动关系不大。因此,上述处理能够增强中兴通讯自由现金流计算的准确性。另外,CAPM模型假定β为常数,然而近年来关于β时变性的研究层出不穷。同时,中兴通讯是一家高新技术企业,高新技术企业与其他企业相比,面临更大的市场风险,抵御系统风险的能力也在不断波动。因此,本文在运用CAPM模型时,将β的时变特征考虑在内。这样的处理使得求出的目标价值不再是一个固定的常数,而是一个合理的区间,与资本市场的实际情况更加吻合。本文的研究结果对通讯设备制造业的价值评估具有借鉴意义,同时有助于企业管理者提高管理效率,有助于投资者形成正确的投资决策。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the financial markets at home and abroad have been surging, ups and downs, large-scale mergers and acquisitions activities emerge in endlessly. At the same time, with the development of science and technology, thousands of categories of financial products, In short, the financial environment is more complex. In such a context, choosing the right investment target requires more scientific analysis and accurate evaluation. Evaluation of the value of virtual goods has become an urgent concern for investors. Manufacturing is the pillar of the national economy, and the manufacturing sector of communications equipment is an important part of the manufacturing industry. In addition, from market value, business income, market share, According to the analysis of product line and other aspects, ZTE is a typical representative of the communication equipment manufacturing industry. Therefore, this paper takes ZTE as the research object. This paper evaluates the equity value of ZTE by case study and literature research. Firstly, the paper introduces the method and theory of value evaluation, and analyzes the meaning, characteristics and applicable scope of each method. After that, it describes the basic situation of ZTE and the present situation and characteristics of the communication equipment manufacturing industry. To deepen our understanding of the company's profile and industry background. The subsequent strategic financial analysis of ZTE gives us an understanding of the company's solvency, profitability and operational capability, as well as the reasonableness and implementation of the company's initial strategy. Combined with the results of strategic financial analysis, the paper evaluates the equity value of the company by using the discounted cash flow method, and obtains a more positive result than the market transaction price. In this paper, the free cash flow of ZTE is calculated. The assets and liabilities of the enterprise are distinguished from the point of view of operation and finance, and the financial statements for management are recompiled. ZTE is a communications equipment manufacturer whose normal operation is carried out in the product and factor markets. The creation of value accords with the characteristics of traditional manufacturing industry and has little to do with investment and financing activities in the capital market. Therefore, the above treatment can enhance the accuracy of free cash flow calculation of ZTE. In addition, the CAPM model assumes that 尾 is a constant. However, in recent years, there have been endless studies on 尾 -time variability. At the same time, ZTE is a high-tech enterprise. Compared with other enterprises, high-tech enterprises face greater market risks. Therefore, in this paper, the time-varying characteristic of 尾 is taken into account when using the CAPM model, so the target value is not a fixed constant, but a reasonable interval. The results of this paper can be used for reference to evaluate the value of communication equipment manufacturing industry, at the same time, it is helpful for enterprise managers to improve management efficiency and for investors to form correct investment decisions.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F626.115

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