商品房市场非均衡与货币政策的关系研究

发布时间：2018-01-04 18:06

本文关键词：商品房市场非均衡与货币政策的关系研究　出处：《哈尔滨工业大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自1998年福利分房制度取消以来，我国房地产市场得到了飞跃发展。如今，，房地产业在国民经济中占据着重要的地位，关系国计民生和社会稳定。然而，房地产市场的过热成长引发了一系列的问题，如房价高位攀升、供给结构失调、保障体系匮乏、投机行为和市场泡沫滋生等，所以说，我国目前的房地产市场存在着严重的非均衡发展趋势。为此，我国政府采取了一系列的宏观调控措施来控制市场的非理性波动，其中货币政策是最为常见，且影响最为显著、作用效果最为迅速的手段。因此，本文将着重挖掘商品房市场的非均衡发展状况，同时对其与货币政策之间的关系及影响机理进行深入而全面的探讨。首先，文章对房地产市场的非均衡和货币政策的相关理论进行阐释和描述，定性分析货币政策对市场非均衡产生的影响，以及房地产市场对实体经济发展的重要意义；其次，文章通过双曲线聚合方程和灰色GM(1，1)模型来分析我国98年之后的商品房市场非均衡变动情况，并预测出2012年之后市场的发展走势。结果表明：1998年至2012年间，我国商品房市场的非均衡状况呈现波动变化，通过非均衡度指标可以将商品房市场的发展划分为4个阶段，目前市场处于供不应求状态。从灰色模型的预测结果来看，如果按照当下的发展趋势，2012年之后的三年内，市场的需求量仍然较大，超过供给量。最后，文章综合运用VEC模型、脉冲响应、方差分解、Granger因果关系检验等计量方法来研究市场的非均衡与货币政策之间的关系，探索货币政策对商品房数量非均衡和结构非均衡的影响；在此基础上，建立货币政策、商品房市场与宏观经济之间的SVAR模型，进一步研究商品房市场的均衡发展在货币政策向宏观经济传导过程中发挥的效用。从实证结果来看，货币政策对商品房数量非均衡的影响力要高于对结构非均衡的作用，货币供应量和金融机构贷款规模能够对房地产市场的供给和需求起到正向促进作用，而利率则起到了相反的效应。货币供给量对商品房供给结构失衡的调整效果要优于利率政策。此外，在货币政策向宏观经济的传导过程中，商品房市场起着中间媒介的作用，其对宏观经济的产出和物价有着重要贡献，所以说商品房市场的发展对货币政策的调控效果起决定性作用。前期货币政策对商品房市场的传导过程较为通畅，作用成效显著，然而后期由于商品房市场的非均衡问题使得传导过程受到阻碍，尤其是对实体经济消费的拉动效果不显著。
[Abstract]:Since the abolition of welfare housing allocation system in 1998, the real estate market in China has been developed by leaps and bounds. Nowadays, the real estate industry occupies an important position in the national economy, which has a bearing on the national economy and people's livelihood and social stability. The overheated growth of the real estate market has led to a series of problems, such as the high rise in house prices, the imbalance of supply structure, the lack of security system, speculation and market bubbles, so said. China's real estate market has a serious trend of unbalanced development. Therefore, our government has taken a series of macro-control measures to control the irrational fluctuations of the market, among which monetary policy is the most common. And the most significant impact, the most rapid effect of the means. Therefore, this paper will focus on the non-balanced development of the commercial housing market. At the same time, the relationship between it and monetary policy and its influence mechanism are discussed deeply and comprehensively. First of all, the paper explains and describes the disequilibrium of the real estate market and the relevant theories of monetary policy, and qualitatively analyzes the impact of monetary policy on the non-equilibrium of the market. And the significance of real estate market to the development of real economy; Secondly, through hyperbolic polymerization equation and grey GM1 / 1) model, this paper analyzes the non-equilibrium changes of commercial housing market in China after 98 years. The results show that: from 1998 to 2012, the non-equilibrium situation of China's commercial housing market fluctuates. The development of commercial housing market can be divided into four stages through the index of non-equilibrium. The current market is in a state of shortage of supply. According to the forecast results of grey model, if according to the current trend of development. Three years after 2012, the market demand is still large, more than supply. Finally, the paper uses VEC model, impulse response, variance decomposition and Granger causality test to study the relationship between market disequilibrium and monetary policy. To explore the influence of monetary policy on the quantity and structure of commercial housing; On this basis, the paper establishes the SVAR model between the monetary policy, the commercial housing market and the macro economy. Further study of the commercial housing market balanced development in the monetary policy to the macroeconomic transmission process play a role. From the empirical results. The influence of monetary policy on the quantity disequilibrium of commercial housing is higher than that on structural disequilibrium. Money supply and loan scale of financial institutions can play a positive role in promoting the supply and demand of real estate market. The effect of money supply on the imbalance of supply structure of commodity housing is better than that of interest rate policy. In addition, in the transmission process from monetary policy to macro economy. Commercial housing market plays an intermediary role, which has an important contribution to macroeconomic output and prices. Therefore, the development of the commercial housing market plays a decisive role in the regulatory effect of monetary policy. However, due to the non-equilibrium of the commercial housing market, the conduction process is hindered, especially for the real economy consumption pull effect is not significant.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23;F822.0

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