消费信贷的经济效应分析

发布时间：2018-01-05 19:01

本文关键词：消费信贷的经济效应分析　出处：《湖南师范大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着全球经济的发展,经济金融自由化程度越来越高,国家之间的联系越来越紧密。改革开放以来以及我国加入WTO后,经济开放程度进一步扩大,国外经济发展对我国国内经济发展状况的影响程度也越来越大。外商投资以及对外贸易具有极大的不稳定性和不可控性,这使我国经济一直存在热钱流入过大,外贸依存度过高的特点,加大了我国经济的不稳定性。1997年全球金融危机的爆发以及美国的次贷危机引发的全球经济衰退,暴露了这种高投资,高出口经济发展方式的弊端,我国当前迫切需要改变这种经济增长结构。我国政府将扩大内需,特别是扩大居民消费需求作为缓解和改善我国经济发展不平衡的重要举措,将经济发展转移到依靠国内需求特别是消费需求上来。西方发达国家的实践经验表明,消费信贷的平稳较快发展对扩大内需,拉动经济发展具有十分重大的意义,同时,消费信贷的发展能够扩大消费,提高消费对经济发展的贡献度,有利于转变我国当前高投资,高出口,低消费的经济增长结构。本文首先对当前学者已有的研究成果进行梳理总结,然后从理论上分析了消费信贷对消费、投资、出口的影响路径,最后通过单位根检验、协整分析,格兰杰因果检验,误差修正模型,脉冲响应分析以及方差分解对理论分析进行实证检验。研究结果表明：消费信贷在扩大居民的消费需求的同时还将抑制投资的过度增长,但是,消费信贷和出口需求之间没有明显的长期关系。同时,由于我国消费信贷起步晚,发展还不够成熟,对消费、投资变动的贡献度很小。在实证检验的基础上,基于我国当前的国情,本文主要从政府、居民个人、金融机构以及外部环境的角度提出了促进消费信贷发展的政策建议。
[Abstract]:With the development of global economy, economic and financial liberalization degree more and more high, countries are getting increasingly connected. Since the reform and opening up, China's accession to the WTO, the degree of openness to further expand foreign economic development impact on the development of domestic economy in China is also more and more foreign investment and foreign trade has. A great deal of uncertainty and uncontrollability, which make the economy of our country has been the inflow of hot money is too large, the characteristics of high degree of dependence on foreign trade, increase of China's economic instability.1997 global financial crisis, the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis triggered a global economic recession, the exposure of high investment, high export economy problems the way of development, the current urgent need to change the structure of economic growth. The Chinese government will expand domestic demand, especially expanding consumer demand for relief and improve our country An important measure of unbalanced economic development, economic development will shift to rely on domestic demand, especially consumer demand. The western developed countries experience shows that the steady and rapid development of consumer credit to expand domestic demand, it is of great significance to promote economic development, at the same time, the development of consumer credit to expand consumption, increase the contribution of consumption on economic development, is conducive to the transformation of China's current high investment, high exports, economic growth structure and low consumption.
This paper first discusses the research scholars summarize, then analyses the investment of consumer credit on consumption, in theory, affect the path of export, and finally through the unit root test, cointegration analysis, Grainger causality test, error correction model, impulse response of theoretical analysis empirical analysis and variance decomposition results. Show that excessive growth of consumer credit will inhibit investment also in expanding consumer demand at the same time but no long-term relationship between consumer credit and export demand. At the same time, because of consumer credit in China started late, development is not mature enough to change the contribution of consumption, investment is small. Based on empirical test on the current situation of our country based on this paper, mainly from the government, individuals, financial institutions and the external environment angle put forward to promote the development of consumer credit policy Suggestion.

【学位授予单位】：湖南师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.4

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