万科房地产公司投资价值分析

发布时间：2018-01-06 06:00

本文关键词：万科房地产公司投资价值分析　出处：《西南财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：对于股票市场中的投资方,股票的价格波动经常带着神秘的面纱。针对这个问题,被称为“华尔街教父”的英国经济学家本杰明·格雷厄姆在1934年出版的《证券分析》中曾提出有关“价值投资”的投资思想：在纷繁复杂的股票市场中,每只股票的市场报价波动都具有极强烈的投机性(一位喜怒无常的市场先生),然而就长远来看的话股票的价格一定会回到他的理论价值上来(企业管理自身资产以及从中获利的能力)。如今为我们所熟知的世界著名投资者沃伦巴菲特也是这种理性投资观点的拥护者。现在再将视野放到我国的股票市场上来,经过二十几年的成长发展,在国家政府以及相关职能部门的大力支持与协助下,它已经变成了具有两千多家企业的大型股票市场。据相关的媒体介绍,我国股票市场的总市值已经能够跻身世界前列。但是另一方面,尽管股票的发行量与交易量在与日俱增,我国的市场在相关的制度建设以及针对上市企业的价值评估方面却并不成熟。这些制度以及相关建设的缺失,直接导致了股价的大幅度波动以及现在被大家过高估计的市盈率。在这样的市场环境下,如果股票投资者不具有一定的理性投资观念,就会很容易成为市场上的弱势群体,这部分人群认为股票仅仅是一种可以很快生财的投机手段。通常他们会由于缺乏对于股票背后公司的了解而盲目跟风,从而造成自己的损失。因此,为了使更多的炒股者免受损失,同时也为了健全我们国家的股票市场,防止股票投机者对市场引起的混乱,我们必须拥有一套正确理解公司投资价值的完备理论。基于此,便有了本文的写作。目前国内对行业投资的相关研究比较几年前已相对成熟,许多券商都会定期推出各行各业的研究报告,对某一行业或是某一板块做出投资分析和建议,但大部分报告主要侧重于通过行业分析直接得到公司股票的投资评级。许多分析报告仅是就宏观行业分析作为文章的主题,而没有探讨公司的具体投资价值,并没有具体没有采用定量性方法计算公司的价值。本文相对于行业研究报告的创新之处在于,选取万科公司作为研究对象,通过对行业本身进行比较充分的挖掘,以宏观的行业分析作为铺垫,专注于对万科公司的价值分析,通过对公司基本面和历史财务数据的分析,务求尽量准确的预测公司未来绩效。在此基础上,对万科房地产公司的未来经营绩效进行了预测,并利用现金流贴现模型计算了公司的具体投资价值,从而力求在定性和定量两方面为企业投资价值做出全面而详尽的研究。本文共分为六个部分,各部分内容如下：第一部分是前言。主要描述文章的研究背景和意义、相关的研究内容和所使用的研究方法,同时对于自身论文的创新点以及不足做出了阐述。第二部分是对于我国地产市场的历史和现状分析,对于该行业的发展背景进行了介绍,同时指出了现阶段我国房地产市场所呈现出来的特点。这一部分能够使读者掌握到该行业的发展情况以及相关的行业特点。第三部分是万科公司的简介,这部分主要是对所选择的公司进行基本情况和相关背景的介绍,目的在于使读者对于该公司有一个初步的印象,能够理解下文对于公司的展开分析。第四部分是宏观经济政策对万科公司的影响以及公司的SWOT分析,该部分从公司所面临的宏观经济环境以及公司自身的战略角度去考量分析公司的应变的优势劣势以及相关的机会威胁分析,通过该部分的SWOT分析我们可以了解认识到公司的战略发展架构,从而从定性的角度上去分析公司的投资价值。第五以及第六个部分是对公司投资价值的定量分析,从财务报表数据的分析入手,先让投资者从公司的财务情况看清公司的运营情况,再通过自由现金流折现的模型方法去完成一个更加具体的公司相关投资价值的计算,为公司投资价值做一个量化的结论。最后一个部分是结论,包括对于公司投资价值定性和定量两方面的相关投资建议。定性价值结论是基于前文的宏观经济环境以及相关政策分析得出的,定量价值的相关结论是基于前文对公司的财务报表数据的分析以及由自由现金流贴现模型计算出的公司理论价值得出的。
[Abstract]:For investing in the stock market, stock price volatility often with a mysterious veil. Aiming at this problem, the British economist Benjamin Graham called the "godfather of Wall Street" in the 1934 issue of Securities Analysis > raised about "value investment" investment ideas: in the complicated stock market, price each stock market volatility is very strong (a speculative market, however, subject to changing moods) on the long run if the stock price will return to his theory of value (enterprise management of their assets and ability to profit from now). As a champion of the known world famous investor Warren Buffett is the reason investment ideas.
The view in China's stock market up to now, after 20 years of development, in the strong support and assistance of the state government and the relevant functional departments, it has become the more than 2000 companies with large stock market. According to the relevant media reports, the total market value of the stock market of our country has been able to get ahead in the world but on the other hand, although the stock issuance and trading volume in China's market to grow with each passing day, the relevant system construction and the valuation of listed companies is not mature. These systems and lack of relevant construction, directly lead to the fluctuations of stock prices and now we overestimate earnings.
In this market environment, if the stock investors do not have rational investment ideas, it is easy to become vulnerable groups in the market, this part of the crowd that stock is only a means of speculation can quickly make money. They usually due to lack of stock for the company behind the understanding and blindly follow the trend, resulting in their own the loss. Therefore, in order to make more stocks from losses, but also in order to perfect our country's stock market, the stock market speculators to prevent confusion caused by the complete theory, we must have a correct understanding of the investment value of the company. Based on this, it is the writing of this paper.
At present, domestic research on the industry investment compared to a few years ago has been relatively mature, many firms will regularly launch research reports from all walks of life, in a particular industry or a plate to make the investment analysis and recommendations, but most of the report focuses mainly on the industry analysis directly receive stock investment rating. Many analysis is the only report on the macro analysis of the industry as the theme of the article, but not on the investment value of the company, and there is no specific without the use of quantitative calculation method of the value of the company.
The report is innovation, chooses Vanke Company as the research object, based on the mining industry itself more fully, the macro industry analysis as a way, focus on the Vanke's value analysis, through the analysis of the company's fundamentals and historical financial data, to make accurate Forecast Ltd's future performance. On this basis, the Vanke Real Estate Company's future performance was predicted, and the use of cash specific investment value of the company to calculate the flow model in two aspects, to qualitative and quantitative investment value for enterprises to make a comprehensive and detailed study.
This article is divided into six parts, the contents of each part are as follows:
The first part is the preface. It mainly describes the research background and significance of the article, the related research contents and the research methods used. At the same time, it expounds the innovation and deficiency of its own paper.
The second part is the analysis of the history and status quo of China's real estate market, the development background of the industry are introduced, and points out the characteristics of China's real estate market show. This part enables the readers to grasp the development of the industries and related industries.
The third part is a brief introduction of Vanke Company, which is mainly about the basic situation and background of the selected companies. The purpose is to make readers have a preliminary impression of the company and understand the following analysis of the company.
The fourth part is the analysis of SWOT macro economic policy impact on China Vanke Company and the analysis of the strategic point of view from the macro economic environment faced by the company and the company's own company to consider the advantages and disadvantages of the strain analysis and related opportunities and threats by SWOT, the part of the analysis we can understand to the company's strategic development architecture, thus to analyze the investment value of the company from the qualitative point of view.
The fifth and sixth part is the quantitative analysis of the investment value of the company, starting from the analysis of financial data, let investors see the operations of the company from the company's financial situation, and then through the model calculation method of free cash flow of the company to achieve a more specific investment value, make a quantitative the conclusion for the investment value of the company.
The last part is the conclusion, including the investment value of the company for the two aspects of qualitative and quantitative investment advices. The qualitative conclusion is based on the above analysis of the value of the macroeconomic environment and the relevant policy that the relevant conclusions of the quantitative value is based on the theory of value analysis on company's financial statements and data from free cash flow the discount model to calculate the results.

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.51;F299.233.4

【共引文献】