长三角地区房地产价格影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-01-07 09:35

本文关键词：长三角地区房地产价格影响因素研究　出处：《安徽大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自改革开放以来,随着市场经济体制改革的逐步深化,我国的房地产业随之兴起,并逐渐成长为我国国民经济的支柱产业。伴随着房地产市场持续升温的是房地产价格的快速上涨。长三角地区,作为我国经济实力最强劲的地区之一,房地产商品化进程开启较早,发展较为成熟,同时也是外界质疑房产泡沫最严重的地区之一。因此,研究长三角房地产价格影响因素,深入分析区域房地产市场的价格形成机制,对于政府能够更有效进行房地产政策调控,促进长三角房地产市场的平稳健康发展具有很强的现实意义。首先,本文从两个层次对长三角地区房地产市场及价格波动情况进行了分析。第一个层次是对长三角地区房地产市场总体特点进行了概括,包括发展由快速转向平稳,市场需求受到抑制,供给结构逐渐调整,房价持续上升但内部出现分化,市场运行规范化五个特点。第二个层次是对长三角地区16个城市房地产价格波动特征进行了比较分析,发现城市间房价无论在绝对值、相对值还是上涨幅度上都存在差异性,且房价差距呈扩大趋势。尤其从房价收入比情况看,长三角地区城市整体高于全国水平,且内部存在分层结构。其次,根据房地产市场理论模型以及供求关系机制理论,针对长三角地区的实际情况,从房地产需求、供给以及政府的政策调控三方面对影响房地产价格的因素进行理论分析,并据此建立长三角地区房地产价格影响因素的理论模型。在模型中,影响需求的因素包括人口数量和结构、人均收入、需求者的心理预期和需求弹性以及房地产本身和周围自然、社会环境；而影响供给的因素包括成本因素、房地产商数量、房地产商的心理预期与供给弹性以及替代品市场情况；政府的政策调控,包括土地调控政策、金融调控政策、财税调控政策。再次,本文以衡量房价水平的商品房平均销售价格为被解释变量,选取总人口、地区生产总值作为需求因素,房地产开发投资额作为供给因素,利率、汇率作为政策性因素,这些因素作为解释变量,利用长三角地区2001-2011年的时间序列数据建立回归模型。检验结果显示：总人口、地区生产总值、房地产开发投资额、利率水平与房地产价格成正相关,汇率水平与房地产价格成负相关,这与我们之前的理论分析相一致,且所有的变量都通过了t检验,方程的拟合性较好。为了深入研究长三角地区16个城市内部的房价影响因素是否存在差异性,笔者进一步利用长三角地区16个城市2001-2011年的面板数据建立随机效应面板数据模型。通过检验结果发现：人均收入、利率水平对长三角地区房地产价格影响显著,这说明长三角房地产市场的发展主要由需求因素推动,且政府的货币调控政策松紧程度与房价的上涨幅度有密切联系。最后,根据前面的研究结果并结合目前长三角地区的实际情况,提出改进长三角房地产宏观调控措施以稳定房价的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up , with the deepening of the market economy system reform , our country ' s real estate industry has grown up and has gradually grown into the pillar industry of our national economy . As the real estate market continues to rise , it is one of the most powerful regions of our country ' s national economy . Firstly , this paper analyzes the real estate market and price fluctuation of the Yangtze River Delta region from two levels . The first level is to summarize the general characteristics of the real estate market in the Yangtze River Delta region , including the development of the real estate market in the Yangtze River Delta region . The second level is the five characteristics of the fluctuation of the real estate price of the 16 cities in the Yangtze River Delta region . Secondly , according to the real estate market theory model and the theory of supply and demand relationship mechanism , the paper analyzes the factors that affect the real estate price from three aspects of real estate demand , supply and government ' s policy regulation . In the model , the factors that influence demand include population quantity and structure , per capita income , psychological expectation and demand elasticity of demander and real estate and surrounding natural and social environment . Thirdly , in order to measure the average price of the commodity house , the average selling price of the commercial house is interpreted as the explanatory variable , and the real estate development investment is used as the supply factor , the interest rate and the exchange rate as the policy factors . The results show that the total population , the GDP , the investment amount of real estate development , the interest rate level are positively correlated with the real estate price , and the exchange rate level is inversely related to the real estate price , which is consistent with the theoretical analysis before us , and all the variables pass t test , and the fitting property of the equation is better . In order to study the difference of the influencing factors of real estate in the 16 cities in the Yangtze River Delta region , the author further uses the panel data of 16 cities in the Yangtze River Delta region for 2001 - 2011 to establish a random effect panel data model . The results show that the average income and the interest rate have a significant impact on the real estate price in the Yangtze River Delta region . This indicates that the development of the real estate market is mainly driven by the demand factor , and the government ' s monetary policy of monetary policy is closely related to the rise of the house price . Finally , according to the previous research results and combined with the current situation of the Yangtze River Delta region , this paper puts forward the policy suggestion to improve the macro - control measures of the real estate in the Yangtze River Delta to stabilize the housing price .

【学位授予单位】：安徽大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

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