台湾桃园县房地产政策效益模拟与评价

发布时间：2018-01-07 09:17

  本文关键词：台湾桃园县房地产政策效益模拟与评价　出处：《华中科技大学》2015年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 政策绩效模拟 政策评价 系统动态学 房地产政策 桃园县

【摘要】：房地产营建业是台湾的火车头产业,房地产开发案会带动相当多的延伸产业,例如水泥、木材、钢铁设计、营建、装潢、销售、保险、银行贷款等,世界各国皆为了房地产营建业的永续经营付出非常大的心力。由于政府的房地产业营运政策至少有活络台湾房地产景气、降低空屋率、提高拥屋率、合理化调整房价四大政策目标,但是各个目标间本身会相互冲突,且政府的施政手段常有时间递延性；所以在目前的时间点预测未来的政策需求,进而进行政策评估以选出一个符合未来政策需求的政策手段是一个重要工作。 本研究提出适合评估台湾桃园县房地产业营运政策效益的因果循环图与系统动态模型。为了验证本方法的实用性,本论文针对9项台湾桃园县的房地产业营运政策进行政策效益仿真,结果显示本论文方法所选出的四项政策低贷款利率政策、调高土地增值税政策、盖国民住宅政策和调高通勤补助政策以系统动态学方法进行仿真其对台湾桃园县房地产业营运的四个政策目标皆有显着效益。为了验证复合式政策的综效,本研究模拟出在不同房地产营运政策目标下其最适的复合式政策,分别是活络台湾桃园县房地产景气使用调低贷款利率政策搭配调高通勤补助政策的复合式政策、降低空屋率使用调高通勤补助政策搭配调低贷款利率政策的复合式政策、提高拥屋率使用调高土地增值税政策搭配调低贷款利率政策的复合式政策、合理化调整房价使用调低贷款利率政策搭配盖国民住宅政策的复合式政策,其中,调低贷款利率政策在单一营运政策和复合式政策都有优良表现,亦是现实环境中最常被使用与被研究的政策。本论文亦使用交集法与层级分析法发展台湾桃园县房地产业营运政策效益评价,根据实验结果,系统动态模型针对特定政策目标选出的最佳营运政策在以专家意见为基础的不同多准则决策分析方法中亦会选出相同的最佳营运决策,由此可见,本论文之系统动态模型在实务运作上可选出与专家群体意见一致的政策方案。
[Abstract]:Real estate construction is the locomotive industry in Taiwan, the real estate development case will lead to considerable extension of industries, such as cement, wood, iron and steel design, construction, decoration, sales, insurance, bank loans, the countries of the world to the sustainable management of real estate construction cost is very large because of the government's effort. The real estate industry operating policies at least active Taiwan real estate boom, reducing the vacancy rate, improve home ownership rate, reasonable prices four policy goals, but the goal itself will conflict with each other, and the government's policy often means sometimes direct ductility; so the forecast future demand policy at the present time, then policy evaluation to select a line with the future policy needs of policy instruments is an important work.
This study proposes to evaluate the benefits of operating policies of Taiwan Taoyuan County real estate industry and the causal loop diagram of system dynamic model. In order to verify the practicability of this method, this thesis focuses on the 9 Taiwan Taoyuan County Real Estate Trading Policy industry policy benefit simulation results show that the method of the selected four low loan policy the interest rate policy, increase the land value-added tax policy, national housing policy and increase the cover with the method of system dynamics commuting subsidies policy simulation of Taiwan Taoyuan County real estate operating the four policy goals have significant benefits. In order to verify the composite policy synergy, this study simulated the composite policy the most suitable in different real estate operations policy goals, are active in Taiwan Taoyuan County real estate boom with lower loan interest rate policy collocation composite policy high commuting subsidy policy, reduce High vacancy rate by adjusting the commuter subsidy policy collocation composite policy lower loan interest rate policy, improve the home ownership rate using high land value increment tax policy collocation composite policy lowered the loan interest rate policy, composite policy, reasonable price adjustment using lower loan interest rate policy Gai Guomin collocation housing policy, lower loan interest rate policy in the a single operation policy and composite policy has excellent performance, is in reality the most commonly used and studied. This paper also uses the development policy operation policy benefit evaluation of Taiwan Taoyuan County real estate intersection method and analytic hierarchy process, according to the experimental results, the system dynamic model for the specific policy objectives selected the best operation the policy analysis method will also be selected as the best operational decisions, thus in different multi criteria decision making based on expert opinion, the In the practical operation, the system dynamic model can select a policy plan that is consistent with the opinion of the expert group.

【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F299.23
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本文编号：1391934