商品住宅成本与价格的变化态势分析

发布时间：2018-01-07 13:09

本文关键词：商品住宅成本与价格的变化态势分析　出处：《西南交通大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文在国内外学者关于商品住宅成本和价格方面研究的基础上,对商品住宅成本的构成及其变化进行研究,进而从成本角度探讨对价格变化的影响。在规范分析的基础上,对我国2003年至2012年商品住宅市场成本和价格的变化态势进行了实证分析,对该特定时期内价格变化的主要影响因素进行探讨。首先,本文从住宅市场结构方面讨论了其与住宅价格上涨之间的关系。通过市场集中度、产品差异和进入壁垒分析,推知现阶段我国商品住宅市场属于垄断竞争结构,房地产开发企业并不能够独立控制、改变房地产市场价格。从市场结构分析可知,商品住宅的价格变动并不应该归因于垄断结构,而应是城市化过程中的需求拉动所致。其次,本文针对商品住宅成本的构成及变化进行了分析。根据成本的作用方式不同,将成本分为直接成本和间接成本两个大类,并分别进行了讨论。在观察期内商品住宅的直接成本总体呈现增加趋势,土地成本的增加受到政府政策和市场需求的影响,而建设成本增加则更多的归因于原材料价格的上涨和人工费用的增加。归其根本,成本的上升仍是由于商品住宅旺盛的需求而拉动所致的。随后,本文针对商品住宅价格的影响因素及变动情况进行了分析。自住宅商品化以来,我国商品住宅的价格一直保持持续增长的势头,但以2003年为分界点,之前的商品住宅市场发展较为动荡,之后商品住宅的价格趋势整体而言更有规律。最后,本文通过对2003年至2012年10年期间的部分宏观经济指标的季度进行回归,并通过对一阶差分序列运用格兰杰因果检验法进行分析,证实了我国商品住宅市场近年来的价格变动根源是市场的需求拉动,而非简单的成本推动。这不仅能够帮助理解商品住宅市场的运作规律,还能够为商品住宅的价格波动做出一些解释,具有一定意义。
[Abstract]:The scholars at home and abroad based on the study of commercial housing cost and price, to study the formation and change of commercial housing costs, and to explore the influence of the price change from the perspective of cost. On the basis of normative analysis, the change trend of China from 2003 to 2012, the commercial housing market price and cost of empirical analysis of the main factors of the change of the price of a specific period of time.
First, this paper discusses the relationship between housing price rising from the structure of the residential market. The market concentration, product differentiation and barriers to entry analysis, from the commercial housing market in our country at the present stage belongs to monopoly structure, real estate development enterprises are not able to independently control, change the price of the real estate market analysis from the market. The structure, changes in the price of commercial housing should not be attributed to the monopoly structure, but should be caused by demand in the process of the city.
Secondly, this article analyzes the structure and change of commercial housing cost. According to the mode of action of the different cost, the cost will be divided into direct and indirect costs of two categories, and are also discussed. An upward trend in the direct costs of the observation period of residential overall, the increase in the cost of land affected by the government policy and market demand, and increase the construction cost increase is more due to the rising prices of raw materials and labor costs. The cost is still rising, while stimulating due to commercial housing demand.
Then, this article analyzes the influencing factors of housing price and changes. Since the commercialization of housing, commercial housing prices in China have maintained a sustained growth momentum, but the cut-off point in 2003, before the development of commercial housing market is more volatile, the price trend of commercial housing after the whole more regularly.
Finally, the regression based part of the 2003 to 2012 period of 10 years of macroeconomic indicators for the quarter, and based on the first-order difference sequence using the Grainger test for causal analysis, confirmed that China's commercial housing market in recent years, the price change is rooted in market demand, rather than simply the cost push. Can not only help to understand the operation law of the commercial housing market, also can make some explanation for the price fluctuation of commercial housing, has a certain significance.

【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F299.23

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