商业地产发展因素分析与政策调控研究

发布时间：2018-01-09 09:32

本文关键词：商业地产发展因素分析与政策调控研究　出处：《华南理工大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：房地产市场一直是社会经济研究的热点，，相比于住宅地产市场，商业地产市场发展因素的研究还相对较少，在经济理论方面更具有研究意义。本文借鉴对住宅地产市场发展影响因素的系统动力学模型研究，通过建立商业地产系统动力学模型，分析商业地产市场发展的影响因素，同时以深圳地区历史商业地产数据对模型进行检验和调整，进而利用该模型预测深圳地区商业地产未来两年的发展趋势。结合商业地产系统动力学模型建立过程中对各个子系统的分析，选择出政府可通过政策调控的输入指标作为调控指标，选择可反映商业地产市场发展健康状况的指标作为监控指标，通过改变各个调控指标的初始值模拟政策调控，得出各监控指标的变化趋势，分析各调控指标对商业地产未来发展趋势的影响程度。本文希望通过政策调控模拟实验，为深圳政府制定商业地产调控政策提供一些决策建议。
[Abstract]:The real estate market has been the focus of social economic research, compared to the residential real estate market, factors of commercial real estate market development is relatively less, has more research significance in economic theory. This paper studies the system dynamics model of the influence factors of the residential real estate market development, the commercial real estate system dynamics model, analysis the influence factors of business the real estate market development, at the same time in the Shenzhen area of commercial real estate history data to test and adjust the model, and then use the model to predict the development trend of commercial real estate in Shenzhen for the next two years. Combined with the analysis of the various subsystems of the process of establishing the dynamic system model of commercial real estate, selected by the government input index policy as control index can reflect the health status, the development of the commercial real estate market index as the monitoring index, through reform The initial value of each variable index control simulation of policy control, get the change trend of each monitoring index, analysis of the impact of various control indexes for the future development trend of commercial real estate. This paper hope that through policy simulation, provide some suggestions for Shenzhen government to formulate the policies to control commercial real estate.

【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

【参考文献】