房价波动对居民消费影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-15 00:12

本文关键词：房价波动对居民消费影响的实证研究　出处：《浙江工业大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在房价持续波动、消费明显不足、房地产投资者急剧增加的经济大背景下,房地产作为居民持有资产中价格波动较为频繁的品种,其价格的波动是否对居民消费产生影响越来越受到理论界和国家相关部门的重视。因此,房地产价格波动对居民消费的影响这一选题有着重要的理论背景和现实背景。本文在总结梳理房价波动影响消费相关理论的基础上,采用平稳性检验、差分、协整检验、格兰杰检验及回归模型、ECM误差修正模型等方法,运用全国时间序列、城市面板数据、截面数据三个层面来研究房价波动对居民消费的影响。实证表明：房价波动在全国地域内能够引起消费性支出产生变化；长期的城市房地产财富效应是正向的,短期来看是负向的；房价下降对居民消费产生负的影响,房价下降对消费的收缩作用小于房价上涨对消费的促进作用。接下来探讨了现象背后的原因,即财富效应的传导机制及制约因素。通过理论归纳与实证研究,我国房地产市场财富效应的传导机制主要为消费者信心效应与房地产银行信贷的杠杆效应。通过与发达国家研究结果的对比,我国财富效应还没有得到充分发挥,影响房地产财富效应的因素主要有很多,但是在现阶段制约我国房地产财富效应的首要原因在于房价上涨速度过快,自主性需求购买力不足,、其次是消费者的信贷约束与文化习惯的差异,货币政策调控频繁,金融工具的不完善。
[Abstract]:In house prices continued to fluctuate, consumption is obviously insufficient, economic background of real estate investors increased sharply, real estate prices fluctuate more frequently as residents holding assets in the variety, its price fluctuations have an impact on the consumer more and more theory and relevant national departments. Therefore, the real estate price fluctuations impact on the consumption of the residents of this topic has important theoretical and realistic background.
Based on the summary of the impact of price fluctuations in consumption theory, the stationary test, differential, cointegration test, Grainger test and ECM regression model, error correction model, using the time series, city panel data, cross-sectional data of three levels to study the impact of price fluctuations on the consumption of the residents. The empirical results indicate that price fluctuations can cause changes in consumer spending in the country in the region; long-term city real estate wealth effect is positive, the short term is negative; the decline in housing prices have a negative impact on consumer prices decline, the contraction of consumer prices rose less than the role in promoting consumption. Then discusses the reasons behind the phenomenon, namely the wealth effect of the conduction mechanism and restricting factors. Summarized by theory and empirical research, the transmission mechanism of the wealth effect of the real estate market in China and To leverage consumer confidence effects and real estate credit. By comparing the results with the developed countries, wealth effect in China has not been fully exploited, there are many factors affecting the real estate wealth effect, but the primary reason at this stage to restrict our country real estate wealth effect is that housing prices rose too fast independent, lack of purchasing power of demand, followed by the difference between consumer credit constraints and cultural habits, monetary policy frequent, the imperfect financial instruments.

【学位授予单位】：浙江工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F293.3;F126.1;F224

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