宏观经济指标对中国地产指数的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-15 04:13

本文关键词：宏观经济指标对中国地产指数的影响研究　出处：《东北财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在股票市场中存在着不同的行业指数,每一个行业指数反应了其行业的运行状况,所以我国地产指数可以反映出我国房地产市场的发展状况。众所周知,宏观经济运行的状况对于股票市场存在重要的影响,宏观经济运行的状况可以通过宏观经济指标反映。通过研究宏观经济指标对于我国房地产指数的影响有重要意义,首先可以揭示出我国宏观经济指标与我国地产指数的规律性的联系。其次,可以为我国各级监管机构制定有关地产行业股票市场发展的政策提供决策依据。最后,可以为我国各级政府部门调控房地产行业、保证其长期健康有序的发展提供政策依据。本文主要工作为：对可能影响地产指数的35个宏观经济指标首先利用多重共线性(基于方差膨胀因子法)进行了第一次筛选,删除了21个存在多重共线性的宏观经济指标,得到了不具有多重共线性的14个宏观经济指标,其次,对于不具有多重共线性的14个宏观经济指标利用向前选择变量法进行筛选,即对宏观经济指标进行第二次筛选,得到了能够显著地影响地产指数的5个宏观经济指标,即黄金储备、银行间隔夜同业拆借利率、国内生产总值增长率、工业总产值增长率、金融机构人民币贷款基准利率。在得到显著影响地产指数的宏观经济指标体系之后,对地产指数与5个宏观经济指标进行平稳性检验、Johansen协整检验,检验结果表明地产指数与5个宏观经济指标之间存在协整关系,在此基础上,得到了反映宏观经济指标体系对地产指数长短期影响的一般回归模型与EC模型。本文的创新点如下：首先,在构建模型之前对众多的宏观经济指标进行了科学的筛选,保证了所选宏观经济指标之间不具有多重共线性并对地产指数影响显著；其次,同时研究了宏观经济指标对地产指数的长短期影响,反映出同一宏观经济指标长短期不同的影响；最后,之前较少从宏观经济对地产指数的影响方面进行研究,本文在这个角度的研究方面做出了一点贡献。
[Abstract]:There are different industry indexes in the stock market, each industry index reflects the operation of its industry, so the real estate index in China can reflect the development of the real estate market in China. The state of macroeconomic operation has an important impact on the stock market. The situation of macroeconomic operation can be reflected by macroeconomic indicators. It is of great significance to study the impact of macroeconomic indicators on real estate index in China. First of all, we can reveal the relationship between the macroeconomic indicators and the real estate index in China. It can provide policy basis for the development of stock market of real estate industry. Finally, it can regulate the real estate industry for all levels of government departments. To ensure its long-term healthy and orderly development to provide policy basis. The main work of this paper is as follows: firstly, 35 macroeconomic indicators which may affect the real estate index are screened for the first time by using multiplex collinearity (based on variance expansion factor method). Twenty-one macroeconomic indicators with multiple collinearity were deleted, and 14 macroeconomic indicators that did not have multiple co-linearity were obtained, followed by. For 14 macroeconomic indicators that do not have multiple collinearity, the method of forward selection variables is used to screen them, that is to say, the second selection of macroeconomic indicators is carried out. Five macroeconomic indicators, namely gold reserve, interbank interest rate, GDP growth rate, and industrial gross output growth rate, which can significantly affect the real estate index, are obtained. The benchmark interest rate of RMB loan in financial institutions. After obtaining the macroeconomic index system which has a significant impact on real estate index, this paper tests the stability of real estate index and five macroeconomic indicators. The results of Johansen cointegration test show that there is a cointegration relationship between real estate index and five macroeconomic indicators. The general regression model and EC model are obtained, which reflect the impact of macroeconomic index system on the real estate index in the long and short term. The innovations of this paper are as follows: first of all, scientific screening of many macroeconomic indicators is carried out before constructing the model. It ensures that there is no multiple collinearity between the selected macroeconomic indicators and has a significant impact on the real estate index; Secondly, it also studies the long-term and short-term impact of macroeconomic indicators on real estate index, reflecting the same macroeconomic indicators in the long and short term. Finally, there is little research on the impact of macroeconomic on the real estate index before, this paper makes a little contribution to the research of this angle.
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.51;F224

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