昆明住宅商品房市场的系统动力学仿真研究

发布时间：2018-01-21 21:55

本文关键词： 住宅商品房市场系统动力学仿真模拟政策实验　出处：《昆明理工大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近十年来,随着我国城市化进程的加快,我国房地产业在国民经济中的地位不断提高,房地产市场持续发展,住房问题逐渐成为国民关注的焦点。昆明市房地产市场开发规模逐年扩大,产品品质逐步提高,居民消费理念越来越成熟,房地产市场向着持续、健康方向发展。但是在发展过程中依然出现了房价增长过快,市场过热,市场内部结构不平衡等问题。虽然政府出台了一系列调控政策,但是市场反应往往达不到预期目标。如何能科学地分析房地产业结构、理清影响房地产市场的复杂要素并合理预测市场走势、模拟政策效果成为人们研究的热点问题之一。本文以系统动力学理论为基础,以昆明市住宅商品房市场为研究对象,分析住宅商品房市场各参与要素的反馈关系,建立住宅商品房市场系统动力学仿真模型；根据昆明市2005年以来住宅商品房市场历史数据,确定模型中各变量的初始值及变量之间的函数关系。利用Vensim5.4b PLE软件对昆明市住宅商品房市场2005年至2015年间市场供给、市场需求及市场价格发展走势进行实证研究；并对房地产行政干预政策、金融货币政策以及税收政策进行模拟实验,分析实验结果,给出政策建议。本研究对促进昆明市房地产业持续健康发展有一定的参考意义。
[Abstract]:In the past ten years, with the acceleration of urbanization in China, the status of real estate industry in the national economy has been continuously improved, and the real estate market has continued to develop. Housing problem has gradually become the focus of national attention. Kunming real estate market development scale is expanding year by year, product quality is gradually improving, residents' consumption concept is becoming more and more mature, the real estate market is continuing. In the process of development, however, there are still some problems, such as excessive growth of house prices, overheating of the market, imbalance of the internal structure of the market, etc. Although the government has issued a series of regulation and control policies. However, the market response often fails to reach the expected goal. How to scientifically analyze the real estate structure, clarify the complex factors that affect the real estate market and reasonably predict the market trend. Simulating the effect of policy has become one of the hot issues. Based on the theory of system dynamics and taking the commercial housing market in Kunming as the research object, this paper analyzes the feedback relationship among the factors involved in the housing market. The system dynamics simulation model of commercial housing market is established. According to Kunming since 2005, the housing market history data. To determine the initial value of each variable in the model and the functional relationship between the variables. The Vensim5.4b PLE software is used to supply the housing market in Kunming from 2005 to 2015. Empirical research on market demand and market price development trend; And the real estate administrative intervention policy, financial and monetary policy and tax policy simulation experiment, analysis of the experimental results. This study has some reference significance to promote the sustainable and healthy development of real estate industry in Kunming.
【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23;N941.3

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