国际热钱流动对我国房地产市场价格的影响分析

发布时间：2018-02-03 12:37

本文关键词： 国际热钱房地产市场价格分位数计量模型　出处：《湘潭大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：全球经济一体化和金融自由化进程的加快为国际资本在全球范围内自由流动提供了便利，随着人民币升值预期的加剧和中国经济的迅速发展，大规模的国际热钱蜂拥流入我国。在此期间，我国房地产行业发展迅速，巨大的利润空间吸引了国际热钱流入我国房地产市场，使得该行业投机盛行，助长了我国房地产市场价格的高涨。大规模国际热钱流入或流出我国房地产市场容易导致我国房地产市场价格的剧烈波动，而房地产行业是我国经济的主导产业，关乎国计民生，房地产价格的大幅上升或下跌会严重影响我国宏观经济的发展和社会的稳定。国际热钱流动影响房地产市场价格的传导机制分为直接传导机制和间接传导机制，传导效应包括流动性效应、挤出效应和财富效应。从这几年我国国际热钱流动现状和房地产市场价格的波动状况来看，国际热钱一方面促进了我国房地产市场的发展和价格的上升，另一方面也加剧了我国房地产市场供求失衡。利用国际热钱规模、全国房地产市场价格、一线城市房地产价格和二线城市房地产价格四个变量2005年1月到2012年12月的季度数据分别建立实证模型，从实证角度对国际热钱流动与我国房地产市场价格波动的关系进行研究，，我们发现热钱流动对我国房地产价格波动具有显著的影响：从城市等级上看，热钱流动对一线城市房地产价格的影响更大，热钱投机偏好于一线城市的房地产市场；从房价水平上看，逐利性使得热钱对低房价具有正影响，而对于高房价具有负影响。因此，我们认为我国监管当局在制定房地产行业调控政策时要注意政策的灵活性和针对性，并对房地产行业的热钱流动实行有效监管，防止大规模热钱流动对我国房价的稳定造成影响，杜绝由热钱导致的房价泡沫。
[Abstract]:The acceleration of the process of global economic integration and financial liberalization has facilitated the free movement of international capital around the world. With the intensification of the expectation of RMB appreciation and the rapid development of China's economy. During this period, the real estate industry of our country develops rapidly, the huge profit space attracts the international hot money to flow into the real estate market of our country, causes this profession speculation to prevail. Large scale international hot money inflow or outflow of China's real estate market will easily lead to China's real estate market prices of violent fluctuations. The real estate industry is the leading industry of our economy, which is related to the national economy and the people's livelihood. The rise or fall of real estate prices will seriously affect the development of our macroeconomic and social stability. The conduction mechanism of international hot money flow affecting the real estate market price can be divided into direct transmission mechanism and indirect transmission mechanism. The conduction effect includes liquidity effect. According to the current situation of international hot money flow and the fluctuation of the real estate market price, the international hot money on the one hand promoted the development of the real estate market and the rise of the price in our country. On the other hand, it also intensifies the imbalance between supply and demand in our real estate market. Make use of international hot money scale, national real estate market price. Real estate prices of first-tier cities and second-tier cities real estate prices four variables from January 2005 to December 2012 quarterly data respectively established empirical models. From the perspective of empirical research on the relationship between international hot money flow and real estate market price fluctuations in China, we find that hot money flows have a significant impact on real estate price fluctuations in China: from the city level. Hot money flows have a greater impact on real estate prices in first-tier cities, and hot money speculation prefers the real estate market in first-tier cities; From the point of view of house price level, profit driven makes hot money have positive effect on low house price, but negative effect on high house price. We believe that our country's regulatory authorities should pay attention to the flexibility and pertinence of the policy when formulating the regulation policy of the real estate industry, and carry out effective supervision on the hot money flow in the real estate industry. Prevent the large-scale hot money flow to our country house price stability influence, put an end to the house price bubble caused by hot money.
【学位授予单位】：湘潭大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F831.7;F299.23

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