市场预测的可能与不可能

发布时间：2018-03-02 23:36

  本文选题：金融市场　切入点：预测　出处：《上海金融》2014年10期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：正十年以前,我曾经编过一副对联,上联是:解释过去头头是道,似乎有理;下联是:预测未来躲躲闪闪,误差惊人;横批是经济分析。这当然是调侃,但也不全是杜撰。当今的经济理论在方法上日臻精巧,在思想上直指本性,研究对象包罗很广,数据处理相当复杂,常常给人以深刻的震撼和启迪,这是没有疑义的。但与自然科学和工程领域在预测和操控方面的巨大成就相比,经济分析面对未来提供卓越的预见性和前瞻性预测的能力仍然比较逊色,这应该也是很清楚的。
[Abstract]:Ten years ago, I have compiled a pair of antithetical couplet, the alliance: explain the past seems to be rational; the second line is closely reasoned and well argued, predict the future: avoid being seen, error alarming; the streamer is economic analysis. This course is fun, but it's not fiction. Today's economic theory in the method is compact, in thought at the nature of the research object covers a very wide, data processing is very complex, often gives a profound shock and enlightenment, this is no doubt. But compared with the natural science and engineering achievements in prediction and control, economic analysis in the future provide excellent foresight and forward-looking forecast is still relatively inferior, this should also be very clear.

【作者单位】： 安信证券股份有限公司;
【分类号】：F832.5
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本文编号：1558628