房地产投资项目风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-03-06 10:18

本文选题：房地产投资项目　切入点：风险管理　出处：《中南大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：摘要：房地产投资项目是一种投资大、周期长、内部结构复杂、涉及因素众多的复杂开发系统,影响该系统的风险因素众多,影响关系错综复杂。同时,不同风险因素的发生概率和引起后果的严重程度迥异,项目能否取得预期目标具有很大的不确定性,这种不确定性被称为房地产投资项目风险,其直接影响项目效益的预期目标实现,尤其在现阶段我国房地产发展处于初级阶段,市场发育尚不完善,市场资料不足等给房地产企业带来了更大的风险。本文在理论研究的基础上选取“人和商业中心”为例,在各阶段针对性地应用某些定量评估方法。经研究证实,这些方法能有效改进管理决策效果,可极大提高了风险管理效益,主要研究成果如下： (1)将房地产投资项目开发过程划分为评价决策、规划建设、推广销售阶段,依次分阶段进行风险管理研究,有助于项目整体风险的管控。 (2)首先在风险识别环节对评价决策、规划建设、推广销售阶段风险因素进行归纳,为评价决策、规划建设、推广销售阶段构建较具体的风险评价指标,在风险评估环节分别在评价决策、规划建设、推广销售阶段应用了层次分析法和模糊综合评价法、贝叶斯网络、系统动力学等评估方法,实证分析可知各阶段风险识别结果较科学,所采用的评估方法能适用于各自阶段风险评估要求,明显提高评估结论的准确度。本文用图21个、表16个。
[Abstract]:Abstract: the real estate investment project is a large investment, long cycle, complex structure, complex system relates to many factors that influence the system of risk factors affecting many perplexing relations. At the same time, the probability of occurrence and different risk factors caused by the consequences of the severity of different, can have great uncertainty to achieve the desired the target project, this uncertainty is known as the real estate investment risk, which directly influences the target of project benefit, especially in the present stage of China's real estate development in the initial stage, the market development is not perfect, the lack of market data to the real estate business has brought greater risks.
Based on the theoretical research on the selection of "human and commercial center" as an example, in each stage of the evaluation method of application. Some quantitative research has confirmed that these methods can effectively improve the management decision-making effect, can greatly improve the efficiency of risk management, the main research results as follows:
(1) the development process of real estate investment is divided into evaluation decision, planning and construction, promotion and sale stage, and risk management research in different stages. It helps to control and control the overall risk of the project.
(2) in the first part of the risk identification assessment and decision making, planning and construction, the risk factors of sales promotion stage are summarized, for the evaluation of decision making, planning and construction, sales promotion stage risk assessment index system in detail. In the part of the risk assessment in the evaluation and decision-making, planning and construction, sales promotion stage application of AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, Bayesian network, system dynamics and other evaluation methods, the empirical analysis of the various stages of the risk identification results more scientific, evaluation methods can be applied to each phase of the risk assessment requirements, improve the accuracy of the evaluation conclusion. This paper use figure 21, table 16.

【学位授予单位】：中南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

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