基于住宅项目特征的价格与成本实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-11 15:37

本文选题：成本管理　切入点：房价预测　出处：《天津大学》2013年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：住宅项目实施前对拟建产品(住宅)目标特征的决策及对其设计方案不仅决定住宅的出售价格与成本,而且决定项目投资能否成功。国内外住宅的价格与成本内容、项目管理模式、影响因素及环境的不同,导致对于住宅项目的价格、成本预测内容及方法差异很大。我国商品住宅项目成本管理实践中,由于住宅项目房屋及土地的使用权限,对于成本管理仅限于建设期间总施工总承包单位的成本管理,往往忽视目标决策对成本的影响及对既定目标实施的管理。另一方面,业主层级管理权限的不确定性与建设工程成本数据的单一性,使得建设项目工程成本数据构成十分复杂。不仅如此,投资管理者与项目成本管理者之间缺乏有效的联系与沟通,导致工程实施后期,部分业主可能会通过降低材料质量和标准来满足成本的要求。鉴于国内研究项目成本基础资料极其匮乏,因此通过已完工程资料,研究住宅项目价格、成本及目标特征之间的关系在我国工程实践及城镇化建设中具有重大意义。本文以造价管理理论、统计学理论、多元统计分析为理论工具,将郑州市区的57个商品住宅项目价格及工程成本为研究样本,系统地分析了住宅项目特征与成本和价格之间的关系,提出决策阶段与设计阶段,应以住宅目标特征做为主线进行成本控制的观点及相应的管理控制流程和计价方法;通过实际工程分析,建立的基于已完住宅特征住宅成本、价格预测模型,不但能够提供住宅项目价格与目标特征之间的函数关系,而且是项目成本管理与投资管理之间的沟通桥梁。更有意义的是,作者在住宅项目价格与成本的实证研究中,对收集的实践工程数据用统计学理论进行了系统分析,可以成为研究工程成本的计价方法与理论有力的数据基础,从而填补了国内工程造价预测理论与方法实证研究的空白。本文的主要研究工作有以下几方面:1、以造价管理理论为基础,将住宅的出售价格与目标特征引入到项目前期造价管理中,提出以深化住宅目标特征为主线进行决策阶段与设计阶段的项目成本管理概念,给出了相应的管理流程与方法。该理论框架有效地将投资管理与成本管理紧密联系在一起,使得住宅产品的差异化设计能够受其出售价格控制,保证成本管理是在项目投资成功的前提下进行。2、基于目标特征的住宅价格预测模型是保证决策与设计阶段成本管理的核心内容。本文应用模糊数学综合评价方法,建立影响房价与成本的住宅目标特征指标体系,可以有效引导投资者在决策时考虑的内容,与实施时影响工程成本的因素有效地结合起来。论文利用收集实际样本的房价及建立相应特征指标来预测合理的住宅价格。可以提供已建立住宅目标特征与价格的函数关系。使决策者在住宅产品的设计及实施,完全以其出售价格匹配的特征为依据,避免成本分配的不合理性,为价值工程实施提供了前提条件。3、在住宅项目总成本中,除税、土地费用及其它规费等不可控成本外,作者对已完的工程的可控成本数据进行了系统的收集、处理与分析,并制定了收集、处理住宅可控成本的标准。弥补了我国在工程项目造价研究中实证数据样本匮乏的现状。4、应用偏最小二乘方法对收集数据进行统计分析,去除特异点,进行预测,建立了成本与特征之间的关系。分析结果显示,管理能力在是成本预测的重要因素之一,虽不能有效降低成本,然而对成本的合理性具有一定作用。
[Abstract]:Prior to the implementation of the project of the residential products (residential) target feature of decision-making and the design scheme is not only the decision to sell the residential housing price and cost, but also determines the success of the project investment. The price and cost of content at home and abroad, the project management mode, influencing factors and the environment is different, resulting in the price of residential project cost. The content and method of prediction difference greatly. The practice of cost management of China's commodity residential projects, due to the use of housing and Land Authority residential projects, the cost management is only limited to the total cost management of construction general contracting units during the construction period, often ignore the decision impact on cost management and the implementation of the target. On the other hand, a single the uncertainty and the construction project cost management level data owners, the construction project cost data composition is very complicated. Not only that, investment The lack of effective communication and contact between the manager and the project cost management, resulting in project implementation stage, some owners may by lowering the quality of materials and standards to meet the requirements of cost. In view of the domestic research project cost data is extremely scarce, so the process has been completed, the price of residential projects, the relationship between cost and target feature is of great significance in the construction of China's engineering practice and the town. Based on the cost management theory, statistics theory, multivariate statistical analysis as the theoretical tool, the price and cost of 57 residential project in Zhengzhou city as the research sample, this paper systematically analyses the relationship between residential project characteristics and cost and price, put forward the decision stage and design stage, should be based on the target feature of residential do cost control points and the corresponding management control process and valuation method as the main line; Through the practical engineering analysis, completed residential residential building based on the characteristics of cost, price forecasting model, can not only provide the function relation between residential project price and target characteristics, and it is the bridge of communication between project cost management and investment management. Moreover, the author in the empirical research on the price and cost of residential projects in practice the project of the data collected were analyzed by statistical theory, can become a research project cost valuation method and the theory of powerful data base, to fill the gaps in the domestic engineering cost forecast theory and method of empirical research. The main research work of this paper is as follows: 1, the cost management theory as a foundation, will sell the characteristics of housing price and the target into the pre cost management project, proposed to deepen the housing target feature as the main method and design decision stage Project cost management concept, the corresponding management process and methods. The theoretical framework effectively will be closely linked with the investment management and cost management, make the difference design of residential products to ensure the selling price control, cost management is the premise of the.2 in the success of the project investment, the housing price forecasting model based on the features of the target is to ensure that the core content of decision-making and design stage cost management. This paper used the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, the establishment of index system of housing prices affect the target characteristics and cost, can effectively guide the investors to consider the decision-making contents, factors of project cost and implementation effect effectively combine the collection of actual samples. The prices and establish corresponding indicators to predict reasonable housing price using paper. Can provide established target features and residential price The function. Make the decision maker in the design and implementation of residential products, complete with its selling price matching characteristics as the basis, to avoid unreasonable cost allocation, provides a prerequisite for the.3 value of the implementation of the project, the total cost of residential projects, in addition to tax, land costs and fees are not controllable cost it the author of the completed project, the controllable cost data were systematically collected, processed and analyzed, and the development of the collection, treatment of residential controllable cost standard. Make up our research project cost in the empirical data sample lack is.4, using partial least squares method for statistical analysis of the data collection, removal specific point, forecast, established the relationship between cost and characteristics. Analysis results show that the management ability is one of the important factors in cost prediction, can not effectively reduce the cost, but the cost is reasonable Sex has a certain effect.

【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23;TU723.3

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