房地产企业财务风险预警及防范
发布时间:2018-03-17 19:01
本文选题:房地产企业 切入点:财务风险预警 出处:《中原工学院》2013年硕士论文 论文类型:学位论文
【摘要】:房地产是人类生产、生活和一切社会活动最基本的物质基础,其与经济、社会、文化发展关系密切,在整个国民经济体系中属于先导性、基础性产业,处于主导产业地位,起到十分重要的作用。房地产行业较其他行业又有着独特的特征,这些特征决定了房地产企业属于高风险、高报酬的行业,受宏观环境较为敏感,使得其本身财务风险较大。近年来,国家对房地产行业的宏观调控政策层出不穷,这无疑加大了房地产企业抵抗财务风险的压力,多数房地产企业面临着巨大的财务风险。在这一研究背景下,对于研究房地产企业财务风险预警及防范对于房地产行业具有重要的现实意义。 本文在介绍房地产企业财务风险理论概述的基础上,阐述了房地产企业的特点及对房地产企业的财务风险现状和成因进行了分析。在综述国内外学者相关研究的基础上本文选用因子分析和二元logistic回归法构建出了房地产预警系统,首先利用中文版SPSS19.0对房地产企业财务指标进行因子分析,提取出公共因子,然后把各公共因子的方差贡献率作为权数,建立起房地产企业的财务风险综合指标方程,该综合指标能够体现企业财务现状,衡量房地产企业财务风险,并对所选样本做了综合财务风险的排名;在因子分析的基础上对公共因子又做了logistic回归,建立出房地产企业财务风险预警模型,,该预警模型能够有效的预测房地产企业发生财务危机的可能。利用本文所建的财务预警系统对深圳市国际企业股份有限公司进行了财务风险预警,并对该企业进行财务分析,发现该企业面临较大的偿债风险、经营风险与投资决策风险,针对这些风险提出了解决和防范建议。最后,在总结全文的基础上根据本文所建立的财务风险预警系统,对房地产企业的财务风险预警系统的构建提出建议。
[Abstract]:Real estate is the most basic material basis of human production, life and all social activities. It is closely related to economic, social and cultural development. It is a leading and basic industry in the whole national economic system. The real estate industry has unique characteristics compared with other industries. These characteristics determine that real estate enterprises are high risk, high pay industries and sensitive to the macro environment. In recent years, the state's macroeconomic regulation and control policies on the real estate industry have emerged in endlessly, which undoubtedly increased the pressure on real estate enterprises to resist financial risks. Most real estate enterprises are faced with huge financial risks. Under this research background, it is of great practical significance to study the financial risk early warning and prevention of real estate enterprises. On the basis of introducing the theory of financial risk in real estate enterprises, This paper expounds the characteristics of real estate enterprises and analyzes the present situation and causes of financial risks of real estate enterprises. On the basis of summarizing the relevant researches of scholars at home and abroad, this paper selects factor analysis and binary logistic regression method to construct a real estate early warning system. Firstly, the Chinese version of SPSS19.0 is used to analyze the financial indexes of real estate enterprises, and the common factors are extracted. Then the contribution rate of variance of the public factors is taken as weights to establish the comprehensive index equation of financial risk of real estate enterprises. This comprehensive index can reflect the present financial situation of the enterprise, measure the financial risk of the real estate enterprise, and make the rank of the comprehensive financial risk to the selected sample, and make the logistic regression to the public factor on the basis of factor analysis. Establish the financial risk early warning model of real estate enterprise, This early-warning model can effectively predict the possibility of financial crisis in real estate enterprises. Using the financial early-warning system established in this paper, the financial risk warning of Shenzhen International Enterprise Co., Ltd is carried out, and the financial analysis of this enterprise is carried out. It is found that the enterprise is faced with larger debt repayment risk, management risk and investment decision risk, and puts forward some suggestions to solve these risks. Finally, based on the summary of the full text, the financial risk early warning system is established in this paper. To the real estate enterprise financial risk early warning system construction proposed the proposal.
【学位授予单位】:中原工学院
【学位级别】:硕士
【学位授予年份】:2013
【分类号】:F275;F299.233.4
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