基于非均衡理论的兰州市房地产市场研究

发布时间：2018-03-30 22:14

本文选题：兰州市房地产市场　切入点：供求结构分析　出处：《兰州商学院》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：2012年，，一个政策年，限购、限价、限贷下的兰州市房地产市场在观望和紧张中前行；2012年，一个调整年，各大开发企业转商、转三四线甚至转行，各种调控的背后，是房地产行业在国民经济发展中的显要地位；2012年的兰州，在市政和房地产的共同贡献下，贯穿全城的黄河风景线更美了，两岸孕育的商机也随之越来越大；2012年的兰州，人更多了，车更挤了，繁荣的背后，房地产市场机会与风险并存。在此背景下，本文以市场机制的主体——供求机制为切入点，运用大量的统计数据和市场调研信息对兰州市房地产市场的运行情况展开研究。针对房地产市场运行的规律、周期波动、宏观调控等问题，我国学者从一般均衡的角度取得了很多的研究成果。瓦尔拉斯一般均衡描述的是经济运行中的理想态势，它提出了一系列严格的假设前提，认为价格具有充分的弹性，市场是完美的，可以迅速自动出清，最终达到供求均衡的状态。但在现实经济环境中，尤其是房地产市场，非均衡理论可以提供更为接近经济现实的假设条件:1、广义均衡；2、价格刚性；3、数量调整和双重决策；4、收入约束；5、非均衡价格交换。在非均衡状态下，市场的资源配置无法达到最优，效率低下，社会存在福利损失，所以政府应当对经济运行施加影响，将市场的非均衡程度降到最低以提高市场运行的效率。目前在对兰州市房地产市场的研究中，基于均衡理论的研究文献比较多，但是基于非均衡理论的实证研究还比较少。本文在总结前人研究成果的基础上，运用统计资料和市场调查数据对1998—2011年间的兰州市住宅商品房和办公楼商品房市场进行了非均衡分析。建立了非均衡计量经济模型，其中有效需求方程采用市区年末非农人口、城市居民人均可支配收入和房地产平均销售价格作为解释变量，有效供给方程采用GDP、房地产平均销售价格和市区房地产开发投资额作为解释变量，宏观市场聚合方程采用了双曲线聚合方程。通过非均衡度的指标并依据历史数据进行分析，得出兰州市商品房市场不同阶段供求失衡的情况和原因。文章最后综合运用非均衡理论和前面定量分析的结果，针对住宅商品房市场和办公楼商品房市场在非均衡运行过程中出现的问题分别提出了宏观调控建议。期望可以为政策制定者、房地产开发企业、消费者等市场参与主体更为深入的理解房地产市场供求的变化规律、影响因素、发展趋势提供参考，从而为他们的市场交易行为提供决策依据。
[Abstract]:In 2012, the real estate market in Lanzhou City, a policy year with limited purchase, price and loan restrictions, moved forward amid wait-and-see and tension; in 2012, in an adjustment year, major development enterprises switched to business, third and fourth lines, or even jobs. Behind all kinds of regulation and control, Lanzhou in 2012, thanks to the joint contribution of municipal and real estate, the Yellow River landscape running through the city has become more and more beautiful, and the business opportunities created by the two sides of the strait have also increased. In 2012, Lanzhou, More people, more crowded cars, the prosperity behind the real estate market opportunities and risks coexist. Under this background, this paper takes the main body of market mechanism-supply and demand mechanism as the starting point, using a large number of statistical data and market research information to study the operation of real estate market in Lanzhou. In view of the law of real estate market operation, periodic fluctuation, macro-control and so on, Chinese scholars have obtained a lot of research results from the angle of general equilibrium. It puts forward a series of strict assumptions that price has sufficient elasticity, the market is perfect, can be cleared quickly and automatically, and finally reach the state of equilibrium between supply and demand. But in the real economic environment, especially in the real estate market, The disequilibrium theory can provide a hypothesis that is closer to economic reality: 1, generalized equilibrium 2, price rigidity 3, quantity adjustment and double decision 4, income constraint 5, disequilibrium price exchange. The resources allocation of the market cannot reach the optimum, the efficiency is low, the society has welfare loss, so the government should exert the influence on the economic operation, reduce the market disequilibrium degree to the minimum, in order to improve the efficiency of the market operation. At present, there are many researches on Lanzhou real estate market based on equilibrium theory, but there are few empirical studies based on disequilibrium theory. Based on the statistical data and market survey data, this paper analyzes the non-equilibrium market of commercial housing and office building in Lanzhou from 1998 to 2011. A non-equilibrium econometric model is established, in which the effective demand equation is based on the non-agricultural population at the end of the urban area. Per capita disposable income of urban residents and average real estate sales price are taken as explanatory variables, GDP-based effective supply equation, average real estate sales price and urban real estate development investment are used as explanatory variables. The hyperbolic polymerization equation is adopted in the macro market aggregation equation. By analyzing the index of disequilibrium degree and historical data, the situation and reasons of the imbalance between supply and demand in different stages of the commercial housing market in Lanzhou City are obtained. At the end of the paper, the disequilibrium theory and the results of the previous quantitative analysis are used synthetically. In view of the problems in the non-equilibrium operation of the commercial housing market and the office building market respectively, this paper puts forward some macro-control suggestions. It is expected to be for the policy makers, the real estate development enterprises, Consumers and other market participants have a deeper understanding of the changing law of supply and demand of real estate market, influence factors and development trends to provide reference for their market trading behavior to provide a basis for decision-making.
【学位授予单位】：兰州商学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.27

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