投资者情绪、管理者过度自信与盈余管理的实证研究

发布时间：2018-04-05 16:32

本文选题：投资者情绪　切入点：管理者过度自信　出处：《暨南大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：盈余管理并不是一种单纯的会计行为，它是多方利益冲突的结果，其本质就是公司治理问题。至今，，大部分对盈余管理的研究都是基于“理性人”等假设进行的，然而在现实的资本市场中，非理性投资者和非理性管理者常常是同时存在的，那么“双非理性”的共同存在将对盈余管理产生怎样的影响？为了研究这个问题，本文选取中国2007-2010年间沪、深两地A股上市公司作为研究样本，首先参照Deehow等(1995)提出的修正的Jones模型估算了样本期间样本公司的盈余管理程度，证实企业确实存在盈余管理行为。其次，为探究投资者情绪是否影响企业的盈余管理行为，构建了995个上市公司2007-2010年的面板数据对二者进行回归，实证结果表明，投资者情绪对企业盈余管理行为具有显著正向影响。在此基础上，本文引入管理者过度自信指标，借鉴社会心理学理论和迎合理论，探讨当投资者和管理者都处于非理性状态时，投资者的情绪是否会感染并传递给管理者？以及投资者情绪影响企业盈余管理行为的可能途径。实证检验结果表明，高涨或低落的投资者情绪将感染过度自信的管理者使之具有相同性质的情绪，并促使管理者进行盈余管理以此来迎合投资者情绪需求；投资者情绪对企业盈余管理行为的影响，是通过管理者过度自信这一中介变量发挥作用的。为此，提出加强对上市公司盈余管理的监管、建立更加规范的公司治理结构等政策建议。
[Abstract]:Earnings management is not a simple accounting behavior, it is the result of multiple conflicts of interest, and its essence is corporate governance.Up to now, most of the research on earnings management is based on the hypothesis of "rational man". However, in the real capital market, irrational investors and irrational managers often exist simultaneously.So how does the co-existence of "double irrationality" affect earnings management?In order to study this problem, this paper selects Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies in China from 2007 to 2010 as the research samples, and first estimates the earnings management degree of the sample companies according to the modified Jones model proposed by Deehow et al. (1995).It is proved that the enterprise does have earnings management behavior.Secondly, in order to explore whether investor sentiment affects earnings management behavior, 995 listed companies' panel data from 2007 to 2010 are constructed to regress them. The empirical results show that,Investor sentiment has a significant positive impact on earnings management behavior.On this basis, this paper introduces the manager overconfidence index, draws lessons from the social psychology theory and the pandering theory, discusses whether the investor's emotion will infect and pass on to the manager when the investor and the manager are both in the irrational state.As well as investor sentiment influence enterprise earnings management behavior possible way.The empirical results show that high or low investor sentiment will infect overconfident managers to make them have the same nature and encourage managers to carry out earnings management in order to meet the needs of investor sentiment.The influence of investor sentiment on earnings management behavior is played by the intermediary variable of managers' overconfidence.Therefore, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions such as strengthening the supervision of earnings management of listed companies and establishing a more standardized corporate governance structure.
【学位授予单位】：暨南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F275;F832.51

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