商业地产投资风险评价及防范研究

发布时间：2018-04-16 03:07

本文选题：商业地产 + 风险管理　；参考：《长安大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着传统住宅地产投资市场的竞争加剧及国家宏观政策的调控，商业地产投资成了新的投资热点领域，众多房地产商纷纷从传统住宅投资转向商业地产投资。虽然商业地产投资的利润丰厚，但是商业地产投资是一项综合性、专业性、技术性极强的投资活动，同时也是一次高投入、高风险的投资过程。商业地产的特性决定了它投资数额大、投资周期长、变现能力差，，在投资过程中既有经营风险、建设风险等有形风险，也有政策变化等无形风险。因此，对商业地产投资风险进行评价，使得投资商在商业地产投资活动过程中有效防范和规避风险具有十分重要的理论和实践意义。本文在总结前人研究成果的基础上，从商业地产投资的概念入手，以风险管理的理论为指导，对商业地产投资过程的各个阶段中的风险因素进行识别，构建了商业地产投资风险因素评价指标体系，运用灰色理论和系统工程的方法，建立了模糊灰色熵权模型，定量测度现实中具体某商业地产项目开发的风险状态，从而总结出一套适合中国商业地产项目开发风险评判的模型或方法体系。通过商业地产投资风向评价模型的构建，对一个商业地产投资案例进行风险评价分析，得出该案例的风险水平，从而验证了本文所建立的商业地产投资风险评价模型的的科学性和实用性。最后文本根据识别的商业地产投资各个阶段的风险，提出了商业地产投资在各个阶段的风险防范和规避措施。
[Abstract]:With the aggravation of the competition in the traditional residential real estate investment market and the regulation of the national macro-policy, the commercial real estate investment has become a new investment hot area, and many real estate developers have shifted from the traditional residential investment to the commercial real estate investment.Although the commercial real estate investment profit is rich, but the commercial real estate investment is a comprehensive, professional, highly technical investment activities, but also a high investment, high risk investment process.The characteristics of commercial real estate determine its investment amount is large, investment cycle is long, and its liquidity is poor. In the process of investment, there are tangible risks such as management risk, construction risk, and intangible risk such as policy change.Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to evaluate the investment risk of commercial real estate, so that the investors can effectively guard against and avoid the risk in the process of commercial real estate investment.On the basis of summing up the previous research results, this paper starts with the concept of commercial real estate investment and, guided by the theory of risk management, identifies the risk factors in each stage of the commercial real estate investment process.The evaluation index system of commercial real estate investment risk factors is constructed, and the fuzzy grey entropy weight model is established by using grey theory and system engineering method to measure quantitatively the risk state of a commercial real estate project in reality.A set of model or method system suitable for risk evaluation of commercial real estate development in China is summarized.Through the construction of wind direction evaluation model of commercial real estate investment, the risk evaluation analysis of a commercial real estate investment case is carried out, and the risk level of this case is obtained.The model of commercial real estate investment risk evaluation established in this paper is proved to be scientific and practical.Finally, according to the identified risks of commercial real estate investment in each stage, the paper puts forward the risk prevention and avoidance measures of commercial real estate investment in each stage.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

【引证文献】