企业债务融资与我国广义货币供应关系的实证分析
发布时间:2018-04-16 11:16
本文选题:企业债务融资 + 信贷融资 ; 参考:《上海师范大学》2013年硕士论文
【摘要】:为了应对国际金融危机的冲击,我国积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策导致货币信贷增长过快,在重点关注信贷等影响货币增速加快的因素下,融资结构的不合理造成货币供应持续增长并高于其他国家也逐渐被政策制定者和学者们关注,间接融资比例过高而直接融资比例过低也是我国融资结构一直面临的问题。借鉴日本在信贷主导M2走势的情形下依靠大力发展债市来实现经济平稳过渡及吸取美国在高通胀情况下没有马上控制信贷融资增长的教训,我国自2005年开始提出“扩大直接融资规模”,并重点发展企业债市,,自2008年企业债市实现发展飞跃后,我国又相继推出短期融资券,中期票据、超短融、私募债、定向债务融资工具等创新型企业债券融资工具,实现了我国企业债券发展规模持续快速增长。除此以外,认为间接融资派生货币而直接融资对货币供应没有影响的传统观点也已遭到各界的质疑。从社会融资结构的角度来看,银行持有直接融资中的企业债占企业债总持有量的60%,而银行持有企业债同样具有货币派生效应,这使得讨论企业债务融资对货币供应的增长具有重要的意义。 本文采用定性分析和定量分析相结合、内因和外因相结合及对比分析的方法,以货币派生传导原理为基础框架,通过引入货币供应融资乘数这个关键变量,来推导研究融资企业直接融资占比提高的情况下,货币供应融资乘数这个变量的变动状况。并通过采用近五年月度企业债发行规模、新增人民币贷款、广义货币M2增量的月度数据来对这三者的关系进行实证分析。 理论部分通过在只有间接融资,间接融资和企业债务融资并存,以及间接融资和企业债务融资并存,并且考虑银行购买企业债的三种情形下对货币供应融资乘数的讨论,得出加入直接融资减小货币供应量,银行购买 企业债有货币派生效果的结论,并且通过实证环节对企业债务融资和信贷融资对M2增长的回归分析,证明了理论部分推导的结论。 本文在论述过程中,力求把理论与中国的实际相结合,将西方的理论思想和中国经济数据都放到中国的经济的大背景下讨论,以期获得较为可靠的结果。
[Abstract]:In order to cope with the impact of the international financial crisis, China's active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy have led to the excessive growth of monetary credit.The unreasonable financing structure leads to the continuous growth of the money supply and is gradually concerned by the policy makers and scholars. The excessive proportion of indirect financing and the too low proportion of direct financing are the problems that China's financing structure has been facing all the time.Draw lessons from Japan's reliance on vigorously developing the debt market to achieve a smooth economic transition under the circumstances of credit leading M2 and the lessons that the United States has not immediately controlled the growth of credit financing in the context of high inflation.Since 2005, China has put forward to "expand the scale of direct financing" and focus on the development of the enterprise bond market. Since 2008, when the enterprise bond market has achieved a leap, China has successively introduced short-term financing bonds, medium-term notes, ultra-short financing, private equity debt.Innovative corporate bond financing tools, such as directed debt financing tools, have achieved a sustained and rapid growth in the scale of corporate bond development in China.In addition, the traditional view that indirect financing derivative currency and direct financing have no impact on money supply has been questioned.From the point of view of the social financing structure, the corporate debt held by banks accounts for 60% of the total holdings of corporate bonds, while the bank holding corporate bonds also has currency derivative effect.This makes the discussion of corporate debt financing to the growth of the money supply of great significance.This paper adopts the methods of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, the combination of internal and external factors and comparative analysis, based on the principle of monetary derivative conduction, through the introduction of money supply financing multiplier as a key variable.In order to deduce the change of the variable of money supply financing multiplier when the proportion of direct financing of financing enterprises is increased.And through the use of monthly corporate bond issuance scale in the past five years, new RMB loans, and the monthly data of M2 increment, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between the three.The theory part discusses the money supply financing multiplier under only indirect financing, indirect financing and corporate debt financing, as well as indirect financing and corporate debt financing.To add direct financing to reduce money supply, banks buyThe conclusion that corporate bonds have the effect of money derivation is proved by the regression analysis of corporate debt financing and credit financing on M2 growth.In this paper, we try to combine the theory with the reality of China, and discuss the western theory and Chinese economic data under the background of China's economy, in order to get more reliable results.
【学位授予单位】:上海师范大学
【学位级别】:硕士
【学位授予年份】:2013
【分类号】:F832.51;F822.2;F275
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