资产价格与银行信贷量的相关关系研究

发布时间：2018-04-21 13:05

本文选题：股票价格 + 房地产价格　；参考：《山东财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来资本市场的不断向深入发展，并且资产价格的波动频繁性也前所未有，资产价格波动与社会经济发展之间的关系日益密切，现代金融理论界也已充分认识到了这一点。同时，美国房地产价格的大幅波动导致美国次贷危机爆发，进而转变为全球性的金融危机，对世界的金融体系和整体的经济环境带来严重的冲击。在这场危机中，银行信贷的扩张与紧缩和资产价格的暴涨暴跌是不可忽视的现象。而近几年，中国的股票市场和房地产市场由于外部和内部经济环境的变化产生了大幅度波动，银行信贷规模再度扩张。因此，保持我国证券市场与房地产市场平稳发展和金融体系稳定，对我国的资产价格和银行信贷规模进行关系研究显得至关重要。本文在对资产价格和银行信贷规模关联性的理论分析的基础之上，选取我国2002年至2012年的月度数据，基于股票市场和房地产市场，运用Dieter Gerdesmeier、Hans-Eggert Reimers和Barbara Roffia的资产价格计算公式，将资产价格单独计算出来。通过对资产价格和信贷规模的关系研究，得到信贷规模对资产价格的短期和长期的影响不同的结论。在短期内，资产价格对银行信贷规模具有单向的正向影响；而在长期，银行信贷规模对资产价格具有正反馈机制。而我国股票市场和房地产市场具有不同的特点，应该针对两个市场不同的运行规律提出相应的政策建议。如针对股票市场，相关部门应大力加强不断优化和完善市场结构，加强对股票市场的监管并注重引导投资者的投资理念。而针对我国的房地产市场，，政府部门可以从房地产产业结构和房地产信贷结构这两个方面入手。除此之外，还要大力加强银行信贷管理和信贷风险控制、逐步健全货币政策传导机制，并进一步完善我国的金融制度。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the capital market continues to develop in depth, and the frequent fluctuation of asset price is unprecedented. The relationship between the fluctuation of asset price and the development of social economy is increasingly close. The modern financial theorists have also fully realized this point. At the same time, the large fluctuations of American real estate prices lead to the outbreak of the sub-prime mortgage crisis in the United States, which turns into a global financial crisis, which has a serious impact on the world financial system and the overall economic environment. In this crisis, the expansion and tightening of bank credit and asset prices are a phenomenon that can not be ignored. In recent years, the stock market and real estate market in China have experienced great fluctuations due to the changes in the external and internal economic environment, and the scale of bank credit has expanded again. Therefore, it is very important to study the relationship between asset price and bank credit scale in order to maintain the stable development of securities market and real estate market and the stability of financial system. Based on the theoretical analysis of the correlation between asset prices and the scale of bank credit, this paper selects the monthly data from 2002 to 2012 in China, based on the stock market and the real estate market, applies the formula of Dieter Gerdesmeier Hans-Eggert Reimers and Barbara Roffia to calculate the asset prices. Calculate the asset price separately. Through the study of the relationship between asset price and credit scale, it is concluded that the impact of credit scale on asset price is different in the short and long term. In the short term, asset prices have a one-way positive impact on the scale of bank credit, while in the long run, the scale of bank credit has a positive feedback mechanism on asset prices. However, the stock market and real estate market in China have different characteristics, so it is necessary to put forward corresponding policy suggestions according to the different operating rules of the two markets. For example, in view of the stock market, the relevant departments should strengthen the continuous optimization and perfection of the market structure, strengthen the supervision of the stock market and pay attention to guiding the investors' investment idea. In view of the real estate market of our country, the government can start from the real estate industry structure and the real estate credit structure. In addition, the bank credit management and credit risk control should be strengthened, the transmission mechanism of monetary policy should be improved step by step, and the financial system of our country should be further improved.
【学位授予单位】：山东财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.4;F832.5;F224

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