2003年至2011年流入我国的“热钱”规模及其影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-04 15:53

本文选题：国际热钱 + 热钱规模　；参考：《上海社会科学院》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：在当今全球经济一体化的背景下,国际资本的流动性在不断增强。作为一种特殊的国际资本,近年来热钱的国际间流动无论从规模上还是从频率上看都与日俱增。不可否认热钱在活跃国际金融市场以及资本在全球的合理配置等方面具有一定的积极作用,但日益增长的热钱与国际金融动荡有着不可割裂的联系,甚至诱发金融危机,例如发历史上1992年发生的欧洲货币体系危机、1994年发生的墨西哥金融危机以及1997年发生的东南亚金融危机都与热钱的国际间流动密切相关。自加入WTO以来我国经济发展迅速,对外开放程度不断增加。随着对外贸易的增长以及资本的涌入,我国积累了大量的外汇储备。与此同时,国内外对人民币升值的预期日益强烈。2002年我国国际收支平衡表中“净误差与遗漏”项目由负转正,这表明热钱正通过各种渠道涌入中国,其中不乏通过多种途径投机人民币资产,期望通过人民币的升值获取高额收益。尽管目前热钱的大量流入已经得到相关部门的重视,且出台了不少监管措施,但随着人民币升值压力的逐渐加大,热钱的流入趋势有增无减,并出现了一些新的特点。为充分应对热钱流入带来的负面影响,深入研究热钱流入的渠道规模以其对我国经济产生的影响具有重要意义。本文论述分为三个部分：第一部分主要是探讨热钱的概念,并在此基础上对当今流入中国的热钱规模进行合理的估计,如何对贸易顺差和FDI中隐藏的热钱进行估算是该部分的重点；第二部分阐述热钱的影响,该部分阐述三方面影响,一是对资产价格的影响,二是对货币政策和汇率政策的影响,三是对制造业结构的影响。其中对资产价格的影响是研究的重点,会在后文中辅以实证研究；最后一部分主要针对热钱的监管提出意见,力求提出有效可行的建设性意见。
[Abstract]:In the context of global economic integration, the liquidity of international capital is increasing. As a special international capital, the international flow of hot money is increasing in scale and frequency. There is no denying that hot money plays a positive role in activating the international financial market and the rational allocation of capital in the world, but the growing hot money has an inextricable relationship with the international financial turmoil and even induces the financial crisis. For example, the crisis of the European monetary system in 1992, the Mexican financial crisis in 1994 and the financial crisis in Southeast Asia in 1997 are closely related to the international flow of hot money. Since China's entry into WTO, China's economy has developed rapidly and the degree of opening to the outside world has been increasing. With the growth of foreign trade and the influx of capital, China has accumulated a large amount of foreign exchange reserves. At the same time, the expectation of RMB appreciation at home and abroad is increasingly strong. In 2002, the "net errors and omissions" items in China's balance of payments account changed from negative to positive, indicating that hot money is pouring into China through various channels. Many of them speculate on RMB assets through a variety of channels, hoping to gain high returns through RMB appreciation. Although a large number of hot money inflows have been paid attention to by relevant departments and many regulatory measures have been issued, but with the increasing pressure of RMB appreciation, the inflow trend of hot money has increased and some new features have emerged. In order to fully deal with the negative impact of hot money inflow, it is of great significance to study the channel scale of hot money inflow and its impact on Chinese economy. This paper is divided into three parts: the first part mainly discusses the concept of hot money, and on the basis of this, it makes a reasonable estimate of the scale of hot money flowing into China. How to estimate the trade surplus and the hidden hot money in FDI is the focus of this part. The second part expounds the influence of hot money, this part expounds the influence of three aspects, one is the influence on asset price, the other is the influence on monetary policy and exchange rate policy. Third, the impact on the structure of the manufacturing industry. The impact on asset prices is the focus of the study, which will be supplemented by empirical research; the last part mainly focuses on the supervision of hot money, and tries to put forward effective and feasible constructive suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：上海社会科学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.5

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