我国国际短期资本流动规模测算及其影响因素的研究

发布时间：2018-05-04 12:26

本文选题：国际短期资本流动 + 规模测算　；参考：《湖南大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来，随着经济全球化进程的加快和我国金融自由化程度的加深，国际短期资本流动规模异常迅速，，其中也不缺乏呈现出新情况，新趋势，表现出新问题。国际短期资本流动呈现为流动性高，流动方向不易监测，投机性较强等特点，加上我国的金融市场体制不完善，监管体系也不健全，势必对我国经济发展和金融安全带来较大的隐患。因此看来，对短期资本流动的机制、趋势及其影响因素的研宄具有较大的现实意义。本文在回顾国际资本流动经典理论的基础上，对2012年的国内短期资本流动现状及流通渠道进行归纳总结，测算了国际短期资本的净流入量规模。结合资本流动经典理论和我国实际情况，确定了主要影响因素，建立了包含短期资本流动、国内外利差、实际有效汇率指数、经济增长量、通胀率差、房地产收益率七个变量的VAR计量模型，并对2006-2012年季度资本流动进行Granger因果关系检验，运用脉冲响应函数考察了各因素对短期资本流动的影响，并运用方差分解法评估了每一个变量冲击的相对影响程度。本文主要对2012年短期资本流动的新情况进行了分析，经过实证得出，中外利率差和汇率对短期资本流动的影响较为显著，体现出资本逐利性。最后，文章从利率市场化、汇率市场化、短期资本监管机制、国际收支平衡机制角度提出了针对性的政策建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the acceleration of the process of economic globalization and the deepening of financial liberalization in China, the scale of international short-term capital flows is extremely rapid, and there is no shortage of new situations, new trends and new problems. International short-term capital flows are characterized by high liquidity, difficult to monitor the direction of flow, strong speculation and so on. In addition, China's financial market system is not perfect, and the regulatory system is not perfect. It is bound to bring great hidden trouble to the economic development and financial security of our country. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the mechanism, trend and influencing factors of short-term capital flow. On the basis of reviewing the classical theory of international capital flow, this paper sums up the current situation and circulation channels of domestic short-term capital flows in 2012, and calculates the scale of net inflow of international short-term capital. Combined with the classical theory of capital flow and the actual situation of our country, the main influencing factors are determined, including short-term capital flow, domestic and foreign interest rate difference, real effective exchange rate index, economic growth amount, poor inflation rate, etc. The VAR econometric model of seven variables of real estate yield, and the Granger causality test of capital flow in 2006-2012 quarter, and the impact of various factors on short-term capital flow are investigated by using impulse response function. Variance decomposition method is used to evaluate the relative impact of each variable shock. This paper mainly analyzes the new situation of short-term capital flow in 2012. The empirical results show that the influence of interest rate difference and exchange rate on short-term capital flow is more significant, which reflects the profit-driven nature of capital. Finally, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions from the angle of interest rate marketization, exchange rate marketization, short-term capital supervision and balance of payments mechanism.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.5

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