格序决策在多目标投资决策中的应用

发布时间：2018-05-17 03:44

本文选题：不确定性 + 多目标格序决策　；参考：《西南交通大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：在工程建设项目的各阶段决策中,需要同时考虑工程质量,投入成本,施工进度,社会效益,环境影响等多方面问题。在多准则决策过程中,“不可公度性”和“矛盾性”时刻存在,再有决策者的不确定性偏好关系导致在各种备选方案中很难进行绝对化的优劣排序。在工程实际问题中,由于环境的不同,不同决策者所考虑决策问题中各项指标准则不同,使得其对各项指标的评价值具有不稳定性,并在一定的范围内波动。另外获得决策信息环境的局限性也可能导致决策信息具有随机性和模糊性,这就致使各指标权重描述结果不仅仅是一个点,而是一个区间,从而造成方案选择两难。本文在多目标格序决策和不确定性决策等相关理论的基础上,提出了多目标格序决策方法在建设项目投资决策中的应用。该方法运用项目前期收集的模糊资料,采用最优权重分析法获得综合评价区间,再根据各评价值在自身区间中不同的概率分布,获得相应最优值,对比多种方案,选取最优方案。本文采用的模型需要前期数据的模糊性减轻了资料收集阶段的工作量,并且可以避免在前期资料整理中人为剔除等主观因素造成的对资料信息的不利影响,打破了一直以来采用中间值、平均值代替评价值而不考虑评价值分布问题的做法,很好的解决了当前国内外建设项目中多目标决策所遇到的方案比较准则层的多样性及权重的多变性,收集信息的模糊性,以及决策者偏好关系的不确定性等问题,在建设项目实际应用中具有重要的意义。
[Abstract]:In the decision making of engineering construction project, many problems such as project quality, input cost, construction schedule, social benefit and environmental impact should be considered at the same time. In the process of multi-criteria decision making, "incommensurate" and "contradictory" exist at times, and the uncertain preference relationship of decision makers makes it difficult to rank the advantages and disadvantages of absolute in all kinds of alternatives. In engineering practice, because of the difference of environment, different decision makers consider different index criteria, which makes the evaluation value of each index unstable, and fluctuates in a certain range. In addition, the limitation of obtaining the decision information environment may lead to the randomness and fuzziness of the decision information, which leads to the result that the weight description result of each index is not only a point, but also an interval, resulting in the dilemma of scheme selection. Based on the theory of multi-objective lattice order decision and uncertainty decision, this paper puts forward the application of multi-objective lattice order decision method in investment decision of construction project. This method uses the fuzzy data collected in the early stage of the project, uses the optimal weight analysis method to obtain the comprehensive evaluation interval, then according to the different probability distribution of each evaluation value in its own interval, obtains the corresponding optimum value, compares many kinds of schemes. Select the optimal scheme. The model adopted in this paper needs the fuzziness of the early data to reduce the workload of the data collection stage, and can avoid the adverse effects on the data information caused by subjective factors such as artificial elimination in the early data processing. Breaking with the traditional practice of using the median value, the average value instead of the evaluation value, without considering the distribution of the evaluation value, It solves the problems of diversity and weight variability of criterion layer, fuzzy information collection, uncertainty of preference relationship between decision makers and so on, which are encountered in multi-objective decision making in construction projects at home and abroad. It is of great significance in the practical application of construction projects.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F830.59

【参考文献】