我国涉农信贷主体的信用行为及涉农信贷风险评价方法

发布时间：2018-05-24 15:59

本文选题：涉农信贷主体 + 涉农金融机构　；参考：《电子科技大学》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：我国拥有广阔的农耕面积和巨大的农产品市场，“三农”问题一直以来都受到社会各界的广泛关注。解决“三农”问题的关键在于进一步解放农业生产力，促使农村经济又快又好的发展。长期以来，由于涉农经济组织内部结构松散、农户信用状况具有较大的不稳定性和易突变的特征，农村融资难问题成为困扰我国农业经济发展的重大瓶颈问题。本文通过厘清以农户为基础的涉农经济组织的内在信用行为动因，进而构建针对涉农信贷主体的信用风险评估方法，，最终达到缓解我国农村“融资难”的目的。本文的研究不但有助于金融机构提高涉农信贷的质量和管理水平，也能在一定的程度上优化我国农业经济的产业结构，对解决“三农”问题起到积极的推动作用。本文首先以涉农经济组织和农户作为典型的涉农信贷主体，从政治经济学的视角，统计性地探讨了“涉农信贷主体”和“涉农金融机构”之间的历史演变过程和相互关系的发展现状。通过实地调研，在农户层面分析了目前我国涉农贷款的主要用途和来源途径。在厘清我国农村“融资难”问题的历史成因和现实状况以后，本文分别从“涉农信贷主体”和“涉农金融机构”两个层面探讨了我国“涉农信贷主体”的信用行为以及涉农信贷风险的评估问题。在涉农金融机构层面，本文着重分析了涉农金融机构在涉农信贷时所面临的市场状况，在信贷配给的外生条件下分析了涉农信贷的市场特征，并寻找到基于信用风险突变的涉农信贷市场特征因素。在“涉农信贷主体”层面，本文以涉农经济组织和农户为主要研究对象。根据涉农经济组织的组织特征，本文将涉农经济组织划分为“协作型涉农经济组织”和“企业型涉农经济组织”。由于“协作型涉农经济组织”主要由农户自发组成，结构较为松散，该类涉农经济组织的信用风险根源直接依赖于组织内部农户之间的松散结构和相互行为。因此，本文利用博弈论的相关理论刻画了该类涉农经济组织内部农户之间的信用行为，并在一类典型的结构“联保机制”下，探讨了该类涉农经济组织的信用风险如何依赖于组织内部农户之间信用行为的相互作用。进一步，对该类涉农经济组织内部农户的信用行为对组织规模的影响进行了系统仿真。对“企业类涉农经济组织”而言，无论该类涉农经济组织内部结构和行为如何，该类涉农经济组织总会通过某一系列指标反映其信用风险，在这种意义上，这类涉农经济组织的信用风险评估方法与一般企业的信用风险评估方法有相似之处。本文结合该类涉农经济组织的特征，创新性地引入集对理论对传统的信用风险评估方法进行有机整合和“取长补短”，使之在评价该类涉农经济组织信用风险时更具适应性，并由此构建了一类涉农经济组织的信用风险评估方法。进一步，为了刻画作为涉农经济组织基本单元的个体农户的信用风险变化特征，本文采用突变评价法对个体农户的信用风险进行了实证评估。最后，基于上述分析结果，本文从涉农信贷市场建设、农村信用体系建设、政策支持等三个方面，就农户需求和市场实现提出了相关建议，相信这些建议不但能对破解我国农村“融资难”问题起到积极的作用，而且有助于促进我国农村经济的健康、快速发展。
[Abstract]:China has a broad agricultural area and a huge market for agricultural products. The problem of "three rural" has been widely concerned by all walks of life. The key to solving the "three rural" problem lies in the further emancipation of agricultural productivity and the rapid and good development of the rural economy. For a long time, because of the loose internal structure of the agricultural economic organizations, agriculture has been loose. The situation of household credit is characterized by greater instability and mutagenesis, and the difficulty of financing in rural areas has become a major bottleneck for the development of agricultural economy in China. By clarifying the internal credit behavior of the agricultural economic organizations based on farmers, this paper constructs a credit risk assessment method aimed at the subject of agricultural credit. This study not only helps the financial institutions to improve the quality and management level of agricultural credit, but also optimizes the industrial structure of agricultural economy in China to a certain extent, and plays an active role in solving the problem of "three rural".
This paper first takes agricultural economic organizations and farmers as the typical subject of agricultural credit related to agriculture. From the perspective of political economics, this paper makes a statistical analysis of the historical evolution process and the development status of the relationship between "the main body of agriculture related credit" and "agriculture related financial institutions". After clarifying the historical causes and actual conditions of the problem of "financing difficulty" in rural areas of China, this paper discusses the credit behavior of "the main body of agriculture related credit" and the assessment of the risk of agricultural credit from two aspects of "the main body of agriculture related credit" and "agriculture related financial institutions".
At the level of agricultural financial institutions, this paper analyzes the market situation of the agricultural financial institutions in the case of agricultural credit, analyzes the market characteristics of the agricultural credit in the external conditions of the credit rationing, and finds out the characteristics of the credit risk market based on the credit risk mutation.
In the aspect of "the subject of agricultural credit", this article takes agriculture related economic organizations and farmers as the main research object. According to the organizational characteristics of the agricultural economic organizations, this article divides the agricultural economic organizations into "cooperative agriculture related economic organizations" and "enterprise type agriculture related economic organizations". The credit risk roots of the agricultural economic organizations of this kind depend directly on the loose structure and mutual behavior between the farmers in the organization. Therefore, this paper uses the theory of game theory to describe the credit line between farmers in the agricultural economic organization of the class, and under a typical structure of "joint insurance mechanism". This paper discusses how the credit risk of this kind of agricultural economic organization depends on the interaction of credit behavior among the farmers within the organization. Further, the influence of the credit behavior of the farmers in this kind of agricultural economic organization on the organization scale is systematically simulated. In this sense, the credit risk assessment method of this kind of agricultural economic organization is similar to that of the general enterprise, in this sense, the credit risk assessment method of this kind of agricultural economic organization is similar to the general enterprise's credit risk assessment method. The theory of the traditional credit risk assessment methods of the organic integration and "make up for short", so as to evaluate the credit risk of this kind of agricultural economic organizations more adaptable, and thus build a class of agricultural economic organizations of credit risk assessment methods. Further, in order to portray the individual farmers as the basic unit of the agricultural economic organization of farmers. In this paper, we use the catastrophe evaluation method to assess the credit risk of individual farmers.
Finally, based on the above analysis, this paper puts forward some suggestions on Farmers' demand and market realization from three aspects, such as the construction of the agricultural credit market, the construction of the rural credit system and the policy support. It is believed that these suggestions can not only play a positive role in solving the problem of "financing difficulties" in rural China, but also help to promote the rural economy in our country. Health, rapid development.
【学位授予单位】：电子科技大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.43

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