一拖股份投资价值分析

发布时间：2018-06-07 04:21

本文选题：公司价值 + 理性化　；参考：《南昌大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国的证券市场于1991年正式成立起,到现在已经历了20多年的发展。但我国证券市场同发达国家相比,仍然还是比较年轻和稚嫩的,尤其绝大部分的个人投资者对公司价值并没有一个清醒的认识。因此,如何从不同的角度来衡量上市公司的价值,为投资者做出风险提示是我国资本市场发展的重要问题。本文选取我国农用机械制造企业“一拖股份,股票代码：601038.SH”作为分析对象,通过定性分析、定量分析相结合的方法对一拖股份的价值进行评估。首先从行业背景分析研究国内外农用机械行业的现状,结合一拖股份有限公司的基本情况及经营状况、核心竞争力进行了定性分析；其次根据其财务数据从偿债能力、营运能力、盈利能力三个方面进行财务分析,通过历史财务数据来预测未来的趋势；然后选择市盈率估值法和自由现金流量估值对一拖股份进行价值评估,得出一拖股份有限公司合理股价区间为7.54～12.3元。最后从技术分析层面对国内A股市场进行分析,建议投资者择机进行波段操作。
[Abstract]:China's securities market was formally established in 1991, and has experienced more than 20 years of development. However, compared with the developed countries, China's securities market is still relatively young and immature, especially the majority of individual investors do not have a clear understanding of the value of the company. Therefore, how to measure the value of listed companies from different angles and make risk tips for investors is an important issue in the development of China's capital market. In this paper, the author selects "one-tow stock, stock code: 601038. SH" in agricultural machinery manufacturing enterprises in China as the object of analysis. Through qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, the paper evaluates the value of one-tow stock. Firstly, the paper analyzes the present situation of agricultural machinery industry at home and abroad from the background of industry, combines with the basic situation and management condition of Yituo Co., Ltd., and carries on qualitative analysis of core competitiveness, secondly, according to its financial data, it analyzes the ability to repay debt. Three aspects of financial analysis, operating ability and profitability, are carried out to predict future trends through historical financial data. Then, the valuation method of price-earnings ratio and free cash flow is selected to evaluate the value of the first trailing stock. The reasonable stock price range of Yituo Co., Ltd. is 7.54 ~ 12.3 yuan. Finally, the domestic A-share market is analyzed from the technical analysis level, and investors are advised to choose a wave band operation.
【学位授予单位】：南昌大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.51

【引证文献】