证券分析师荐股评级准确性研究

发布时间：2018-06-23 13:08

本文选题：证券分析师 + 荐股评级　；参考：《合肥工业大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：证券分析师主要工作是通过自己的专业分析能力以及与公司管理层建立较为亲密的联系，参加公司内部工作会议等方式获得优于二级市场投资者的一手信息，对整个证券市场或者某行业、某公司的价值及变化趋势进行研究及预测，并将研究结果形成报告，向投资者提供客观、真实、可靠，并且有价值的投资策略或建议。证券分析师报告主要有盈余预测和荐股评级二大部分组成，而荐股评级是投资者作为投资参考的重要依据。但是，证券分析师专业的选股评级是否有一定的预测能力？投资者以此确定投资标的或重点研究跟踪对象是否具有良好的可操作性？分析师评级是否存在不同程度的偏差？哪些因素造成了评级偏差？这些问题的探究，直接关系到中小或机构投资者的切身利益。本文以Wind评级报告数据，对这些问题进行实证研究。文章首先回顾了国内外证券分析师的相关文献与理论基础，然后用描述性统计的方法，详细描述了证券分析师荐股评级报告的现状，接着通过事件研究方法以Wind和国泰安数据库中荐股评级报告作为研究对象，实证研究了分析师荐股评级转化为超额收益的偏差大小，以此来衡量分析师评级的准确性，最后在此基础上，选取上市公司规模、最佳分析师、相对上次评级的评级变动、对某支股票的分析师评级总次数等影响因素，通过相关分析、多元回归分析等统计方法，进一步分析了可能对荐股评级准确性造成影响的因素。最后文章从投资者和监管者的角度给出了关于证券分析师行业的建议，提出进行证券市场分析师行业专项立法，健全配套法律法规，完善信息披露制度,积极培育投资主体，，提升证券分析师从业人员自身素质等建议。
[Abstract]:The main job of securities analysts is to obtain first-hand information that is superior to that of secondary market investors through their own professional analytical skills, establishing close contacts with the company's management, attending internal working meetings, etc. This paper studies and forecasts the value and changing trend of a company in the whole stock market or an industry, and reports the results of the research to provide investors with objective, true, reliable and valuable investment strategies or suggestions. The securities analysts' report mainly consists of two parts: earnings forecast and recommendation rating, which is an important basis for investors to use as investment reference. However, is the professional stock rating of securities analysts have a certain predictive ability? Do investors have good maneuverability to determine the investment target or focus on the tracking object? Is there a degree of bias in analyst ratings? What factors cause ratings bias? The inquiry of these problems is directly related to the vital interests of small and medium-sized or institutional investors. Based on the data of Wind rating report, this paper makes an empirical study on these problems. This paper first reviews the relevant literature and theoretical basis of securities analysts at home and abroad, and then describes in detail the status quo of stock recommendation rating reports by using descriptive statistical methods. Then through the event research method, this paper takes the recommended stock rating report in Wind and Cathay Taian database as the research object, and empirically studies the deviation between the analyst recommendation stock rating and the excess return, so as to measure the accuracy of the analyst rating. Finally, on this basis, select the scale of listed companies, the best analyst, relative to the last rating changes, the total number of analyst ratings on a certain stock and other factors, through correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis and other statistical methods. The factors that may affect the accuracy of recommendation stock rating are further analyzed. Finally, from the angle of investors and regulators, the paper gives some suggestions on the securities analyst industry, and puts forward the special legislation for the securities market analyst industry, the perfect supporting laws and regulations, the perfection of the information disclosure system, and the active cultivation of the investment subject. Securities analysts to improve their own quality and other suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：合肥工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F830.91

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