基于信贷渠道的我国货币政策区域效应的数量分析
发布时间：2018-07-24 14:15
【摘要】：货币政策是指中央银行为实现其特定的经济目标而采用的各种控制和调节货币供应量或信贷规模的方针和措施的总称,是一个国家调控宏观经济的核心手段。自2008年美国次贷危机爆发以来,全球经济急剧恶化,国际经济金融形势更加复杂、我国的外部经济环境日益严峻,致使政府部门货币政策的制定和实施都面临更大挑战。 经过四年的调整,进入到2012年,上次金融危机对全球主要经济体产生的影响,依然没有完全消除。受制于海外经济放缓,外需疲弱和人民币汇率上一年显著升值等因素,我国外部环境较差。直接导致拉动我国经济增长的三驾马车之一的出口增速大幅降低,甚至对经济增速的贡献为负。投资和消费的增长也有不同程度的减弱,这一系列因素导致上半年经济失速较多。面对这种情况,央行开始加大货币政策的力度：在上半年降准降息各两次。下半年我国经济逐渐企稳：7-8月国内房地产市场销售量价齐升：9月欧美发达国家开始了新一轮的货币宽松,外部风险降低,国内数据也有好转。相应地,下半年国内货币政策放松力度减弱,央行不再通过降准来维持市场流动性,而是频繁使用公开市场操作中逆回购工具向市场注入流动性,货币政策趋于稳健。 本文把货币政策传导机制作为研究起点,先对国外研究货币政策传导理论进行梳理,比较货币渠道和信用渠道两大传导理论。再结合我国实际情况,分析我国货币政策的各种传导渠道,发现信用渠道中的银行信贷渠道在货币政策传导过程中的作用最为明显,并确定围绕信贷渠道展开后面的实证分析。 选取2000年到2008年,全国31个省、市、自治区的省级面板数据,根据金融机构贷款期限的长短对信贷总额分类,建立动态面板数据模型。在针对我国经济增长与金融机构信贷结构的关系做经验分析时,分别选用面板工具变量法、差分GMM法和系统GMM法对动态面板数据模型进行回归估计,将三种方法的估计结果对比分析,并最终选用系统GMM法的估计结果做最后的解释。另外,在对再做基于信贷渠道的区域效应差异性分析时,继续选用系统GMM法对分别估计东、中、西三个地区的动态面板数据模型进行估计。 结果,实证分析表明工业贷款当期对中部地区国内生产总值的影响最大,其次是西部地区,对东部地区的影响最小。商业贷款在当期对国内生产总值的影响呈现东、中、西依次递减的态势。农业贷款当期对中部地区国内生产总值的影响也最大,但影响最小的是西部地区。基本建设贷款在当期对国内生产总值的影响按东、中、西的顺序依次增大,且各地区的基本建设贷款的滞后一期对当期国内生产总值也表现出明显的影响。另外,各地区的工业贷款滞后一期对当期国内生产总值的影响均不显著；商业贷款滞后一期值只有东部地区的影响较显著且最强；而各地区的农业贷款滞后一期对当期国内生产总值的影响都表现出负的作用,以东部地区尤为显著。 最后根据实证分析得出的结论,提出缩小货币政策的区域效应的若干政策建议。 全文共分5大部分： 第一部分是绪论。先是介绍本文的选题背景及研究意义；再阐述了本文的主要内容和研究思路；最后总结了本文的主要特色与不足。 第二部分是文献综述。这部分主要从理论、实证和研究方法等层面展开,总结了国内外对货币政策区域效应的存在性、原因、差异的比较和传导机制方面的一些观点,并对它们做了进一步的分类评述。 第三部分是本文实证研究的理论基础。从货币政策传导渠道理论的研究入手。阐述了货币政策传导理论,并从传导渠道角度展开,详细介绍了货币和信用这两大传导渠道的理论。同时描述了当前我国货币政策传导渠道的基本情况,为后文实证分析及检验做好了理论铺垫工作。 第四部分是本文的实证部分。从传导较为明显的信贷渠道出发,对我国货币政策的区域效应做具体的实证分析,这也是本文的主体部分。依据第二部分的理论框架,首先做经验分析,即按照全国的数据,分析经过细分后的四种金融机构贷款额对全国经济增长影响的主要原因。再然后做区域效应的差异性分析,即按东、中、西三个面板数据,分析三个地区经过细分后的四种金融机构贷款额对它们各自经济增长影响存在差异性的原因。 第五部分是本文的结论与建议。主要从研究结论、政策建议、研究不足及进一步研究的方向等方面对全文做一次完整总结和梳理。
[Abstract]:Monetary policy is the general name of the policy and measures adopted by the central bank to control and regulate the amount of money supply or credit in order to achieve its specific economic goals. It is the core measure of a country's macroeconomic control. Since the outbreak of the United States subprime crisis in 2008, the global economy has deteriorated rapidly and the international economic and financial situation is more serious. The complexity of China's external economic environment is increasingly severe, resulting in greater challenges to the formulation and implementation of monetary policy in government departments.
After four years of adjustment and entry into 2012, the impact of the last financial crisis on the major economies of the world has not been completely eliminated. It is affected by the factors such as the slowdown of the overseas economy, weak foreign demand and the significant appreciation of the RMB exchange rate in the last year. The environment of the foreign countries is poor. One of the three carriages that lead to the economic growth of our country directly leads to one of the reasons. At the same time, the central bank began to increase its monetary policy in the first half of the first half of the year. The second half of the second half of China's economy gradually stabilized: 7-8 In September, the sales price of the domestic real estate market rose steadily. In September, the developed countries of Europe and the United States began a new round of monetary easing, the external risk decreased, and the domestic data improved. Accordingly, the relaxation of domestic monetary policy was weakened in the second half of the year, and the central bank was no longer able to maintain market liquidity by reducing the accuracy, but frequently used reverse repurchase in open market operation. Liquidity is being injected into the market and monetary policy is becoming more robust.
This paper takes the monetary policy transmission mechanism as the starting point, first combs the foreign research of monetary policy transmission theory, compares the two transmission theories of monetary channel and credit channel, and then analyzes various channels of monetary policy in our country by combining the actual situation of our country, and finds that the bank credit channels in the credit channels have been transmitted in monetary policy. The role of the process is most obvious, and the empirical analysis around the credit channel is confirmed.
From 2000 to 2008, the provincial panel data of 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions of the country were selected to establish a dynamic panel data model based on the length of loan term of financial institutions. In the case of empirical analysis on the relationship between economic growth and the credit structure of financial institutions, the panel tool variable method, the differential GMM method and the difference method were used respectively. The system GMM method carries out the regression estimation to the dynamic panel data model, compares and analyses the estimated results of the three methods, and finally uses the estimation results of the system GMM method to make the final explanation. In addition, the system GMM method is used to estimate the East, middle, and West three regions, respectively, when the regional effect difference analysis based on the credit channel is re done. The dynamic panel data model is estimated.
The results show that the impact of industrial loan on the gross domestic product of the central region is the greatest, followed by the western region, and the impact on the eastern region is the least. The impact of commercial loans on GDP in the current period shows the trend of decreasing in the East, middle and West. The impact of the current period of agricultural loan on the GDP of the central region is also In the current period, the impact of basic construction loans on GDP increases in the order of East, middle and West, and the lag phase of basic construction loans in each region also has a significant impact on the current GDP. In addition, industrial loans in each region are lagging behind the current domestic production. The impact of GDP is not significant. Only the eastern region has a significant and strongest impact on the lags of commercial loans, while the lag phase of agricultural loans in each region has a negative effect on the current gross domestic product, especially in the eastern region.
Finally, according to the conclusions drawn from the empirical analysis, we propose some policy recommendations to narrow the regional effect of monetary policy.
The full text is divided into 5 parts:
The first part is the introduction. First, it introduces the background and significance of the topic, and then expounds the main contents and research ideas of this article; finally, it summarizes the main features and shortcomings of this article.
The second part is the literature review. This part is mainly from the theoretical, empirical and research methods and so on. It summarizes the existence, the reasons, the differences and the transmission mechanism of the regional effects of monetary policy at home and abroad, and makes a further classification review on them.
The third part is the theoretical basis of this empirical study. Starting with the research on the theory of monetary policy transmission channel, this paper expounds the transmission theory of monetary policy, and introduces the theory of the two major channels of currency and credit in detail from the perspective of transmission channels, and describes the basic situation of the current channel of monetary policy in China. Empirical analysis and test have done a good job in theoretical foreshadowing.
The fourth part is the empirical part of this article. From the transmission of more obvious credit channels, this paper makes a concrete empirical analysis on the regional effect of monetary policy in China. This is the main part of this article. According to the theoretical framework of the second part, the first part of the empirical analysis, that is, according to the national data, the analysis of the subdivision of the four types of financial institutions loan. The main reasons for the impact of the amount on the national economic growth. Then, the difference analysis of the regional effects, that is, three panel data in the East, middle and West, is used to analyze the differences in the impact of the loan amount of the four financial institutions in the three regions on their economic growth.
The fifth part is the conclusion and suggestion of this article. It mainly summarizes and combs the full text from the conclusion, the policy suggestion, the lack of research and the direction of further research.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F822.0;F832.4;F224
本文编号：2141634
[Abstract]:Monetary policy is the general name of the policy and measures adopted by the central bank to control and regulate the amount of money supply or credit in order to achieve its specific economic goals. It is the core measure of a country's macroeconomic control. Since the outbreak of the United States subprime crisis in 2008, the global economy has deteriorated rapidly and the international economic and financial situation is more serious. The complexity of China's external economic environment is increasingly severe, resulting in greater challenges to the formulation and implementation of monetary policy in government departments.
After four years of adjustment and entry into 2012, the impact of the last financial crisis on the major economies of the world has not been completely eliminated. It is affected by the factors such as the slowdown of the overseas economy, weak foreign demand and the significant appreciation of the RMB exchange rate in the last year. The environment of the foreign countries is poor. One of the three carriages that lead to the economic growth of our country directly leads to one of the reasons. At the same time, the central bank began to increase its monetary policy in the first half of the first half of the year. The second half of the second half of China's economy gradually stabilized: 7-8 In September, the sales price of the domestic real estate market rose steadily. In September, the developed countries of Europe and the United States began a new round of monetary easing, the external risk decreased, and the domestic data improved. Accordingly, the relaxation of domestic monetary policy was weakened in the second half of the year, and the central bank was no longer able to maintain market liquidity by reducing the accuracy, but frequently used reverse repurchase in open market operation. Liquidity is being injected into the market and monetary policy is becoming more robust.
This paper takes the monetary policy transmission mechanism as the starting point, first combs the foreign research of monetary policy transmission theory, compares the two transmission theories of monetary channel and credit channel, and then analyzes various channels of monetary policy in our country by combining the actual situation of our country, and finds that the bank credit channels in the credit channels have been transmitted in monetary policy. The role of the process is most obvious, and the empirical analysis around the credit channel is confirmed.
From 2000 to 2008, the provincial panel data of 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions of the country were selected to establish a dynamic panel data model based on the length of loan term of financial institutions. In the case of empirical analysis on the relationship between economic growth and the credit structure of financial institutions, the panel tool variable method, the differential GMM method and the difference method were used respectively. The system GMM method carries out the regression estimation to the dynamic panel data model, compares and analyses the estimated results of the three methods, and finally uses the estimation results of the system GMM method to make the final explanation. In addition, the system GMM method is used to estimate the East, middle, and West three regions, respectively, when the regional effect difference analysis based on the credit channel is re done. The dynamic panel data model is estimated.
The results show that the impact of industrial loan on the gross domestic product of the central region is the greatest, followed by the western region, and the impact on the eastern region is the least. The impact of commercial loans on GDP in the current period shows the trend of decreasing in the East, middle and West. The impact of the current period of agricultural loan on the GDP of the central region is also In the current period, the impact of basic construction loans on GDP increases in the order of East, middle and West, and the lag phase of basic construction loans in each region also has a significant impact on the current GDP. In addition, industrial loans in each region are lagging behind the current domestic production. The impact of GDP is not significant. Only the eastern region has a significant and strongest impact on the lags of commercial loans, while the lag phase of agricultural loans in each region has a negative effect on the current gross domestic product, especially in the eastern region.
Finally, according to the conclusions drawn from the empirical analysis, we propose some policy recommendations to narrow the regional effect of monetary policy.
The full text is divided into 5 parts:
The first part is the introduction. First, it introduces the background and significance of the topic, and then expounds the main contents and research ideas of this article; finally, it summarizes the main features and shortcomings of this article.
The second part is the literature review. This part is mainly from the theoretical, empirical and research methods and so on. It summarizes the existence, the reasons, the differences and the transmission mechanism of the regional effects of monetary policy at home and abroad, and makes a further classification review on them.
The third part is the theoretical basis of this empirical study. Starting with the research on the theory of monetary policy transmission channel, this paper expounds the transmission theory of monetary policy, and introduces the theory of the two major channels of currency and credit in detail from the perspective of transmission channels, and describes the basic situation of the current channel of monetary policy in China. Empirical analysis and test have done a good job in theoretical foreshadowing.
The fourth part is the empirical part of this article. From the transmission of more obvious credit channels, this paper makes a concrete empirical analysis on the regional effect of monetary policy in China. This is the main part of this article. According to the theoretical framework of the second part, the first part of the empirical analysis, that is, according to the national data, the analysis of the subdivision of the four types of financial institutions loan. The main reasons for the impact of the amount on the national economic growth. Then, the difference analysis of the regional effects, that is, three panel data in the East, middle and West, is used to analyze the differences in the impact of the loan amount of the four financial institutions in the three regions on their economic growth.
The fifth part is the conclusion and suggestion of this article. It mainly summarizes and combs the full text from the conclusion, the policy suggestion, the lack of research and the direction of further research.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F822.0;F832.4;F224
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