我国房地产价格与通货膨胀动态关系研究
发布时间：2018-07-25 11:32
【摘要】：本文首先对国内外研究现状进行梳理，并对相关理论与方法进行综述，分别阐述通货膨胀理论和房地产价格理论，对通货膨胀定义和分类进行梳理，讨论了我国房地产价格机制形成模式和美国房地产特点比较。然后分别探讨我国通货膨胀和房地产价格现状特点，发现从1991年-2011年的20年里我国通货膨胀和房地产价格变动存在明显的阶段性特点。比较严重的通货膨胀发生在第一个阶段和第三个阶段。这两次比较严重的通货膨胀又有明显的不同，，第一个阶段（1991-1997)通货膨胀的主要原因是制度和体制调整所导致的需求拉动型和成本推动混合作用，第三个阶段（2007-2008)通货膨胀的主要原因是生产资料和消费资料的快速上涨以及国外资本输入。房地产价格的两次快速上涨发生在第二阶段(1991-1998)和第四阶段（2003-2009)。 从我国通货膨胀和房地产价格时序图走势可以粗略得到通货膨胀和房地产价格有一定的相关关系。本文重点用VAR模型分析我国通货膨胀和房地产价格动态关系，通过定性分析与定量分析相结合的方法，探索它们之间的因果关系。首先对单个变量时间序列进行平稳性检验，检验结果表明序列滞后二阶平稳。然后确认他们之间具有协整关系，之后建立向量自回归（VAR)模型（以下简称VAR模型）。VAR模型可以用来预测相关联的经济时间序列系统，并分析随机扰动对变量系统的动态冲击，进一步解释经济冲击对经济变量所产生的影响。模型建立后，接着利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解的方法来分析各个变量冲击后的反应。 结果表明，居民消费价格受外部条件的某一冲击后，经市场传递给房地产行业，给房地产行业带来同向的冲击，而且这一冲击具有显著地促进和较长的持续效应。房地产销售价格的某一冲击也会给通货膨胀带来同向影响，即房地产价格的增加会在24个月后对通货膨胀产生稳定的拉动作用，但是可以看出，房地产价格变动对于通货膨胀的影响较小。方差分解结果表明通货膨胀对房地产价格变动的方差贡献度比较大，房地产价格对通货膨胀变动的方差贡献度较小。基于研究结果，要想控制房地产价格我们可以从控制通货膨胀的角度来采取相应措施，而控制通货膨胀不能过多依赖房地产价格的调控，还需要从其他方面加以调整。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the current research situation at home and abroad is first reviewed, and the relevant theories and methods are summarized, respectively, inflation theory and real estate price theory, the definition and classification of inflation are combed. This paper discusses the formation mode of real estate price mechanism in China and the comparison of the characteristics of American real estate. Then it discusses the characteristics of inflation and real estate price in China, and finds out that there are obvious stage characteristics of inflation and real estate price changes in China during the 20 years from 1991 to 2011. More severe inflation occurs in the first and third stages. The first stage (1991-1997) of inflation was mainly due to the combination of demand-driven and cost-driven effects resulting from institutional and institutional adjustments. The third stage (2007-2008) of inflation is mainly due to the rapid increase in the means of production and consumption, as well as foreign capital imports. Two rapid increases in real estate prices took place in the second (1991-1998) and fourth (2003-2009) phases. From the trend of China's inflation and real estate price time series diagram, it can be roughly concluded that inflation and real estate price have certain correlation. In this paper, VAR model is used to analyze the dynamic relationship between inflation and real estate price in China, and the causality between inflation and real estate price is explored through the combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. First, the time series of a single variable is tested by stationary test, and the results show that the sequence lags second order stationary. Then it is confirmed that there is a cointegration relationship between them. Then the vector autoregressive (VAR) model (hereinafter referred to as VAR model). The VAR model can be used to predict the associated economic time series system and to analyze the dynamic impact of random disturbances on the variable system. Further explain the impact of economic shocks on economic variables. After the model is established, impulse response function and variance decomposition are used to analyze the shock response of each variable. The results show that the consumer price of the residents is impacted by some external conditions, which is transmitted to the real estate industry through the market, and brings the same impact to the real estate industry, and this impact has a significant promotion and a longer lasting effect. A certain impact on real estate sales prices will also have the same effect on inflation, that is, the increase in real estate prices will have a steady pull on inflation after 24 months, but you can see that, Changes in real estate prices have less impact on inflation. The variance decomposition results show that the variance contribution of inflation to real estate price is relatively large, and the variance contribution of real estate price to inflation is small. Based on the research results, we can take corresponding measures to control real estate prices from the angle of controlling inflation, and the control of inflation should not rely too much on the control of real estate prices, but also need to be adjusted from other aspects.
【学位授予单位】：吉林财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23;F822.5;F224
本文编号：2143694
[Abstract]:In this paper, the current research situation at home and abroad is first reviewed, and the relevant theories and methods are summarized, respectively, inflation theory and real estate price theory, the definition and classification of inflation are combed. This paper discusses the formation mode of real estate price mechanism in China and the comparison of the characteristics of American real estate. Then it discusses the characteristics of inflation and real estate price in China, and finds out that there are obvious stage characteristics of inflation and real estate price changes in China during the 20 years from 1991 to 2011. More severe inflation occurs in the first and third stages. The first stage (1991-1997) of inflation was mainly due to the combination of demand-driven and cost-driven effects resulting from institutional and institutional adjustments. The third stage (2007-2008) of inflation is mainly due to the rapid increase in the means of production and consumption, as well as foreign capital imports. Two rapid increases in real estate prices took place in the second (1991-1998) and fourth (2003-2009) phases. From the trend of China's inflation and real estate price time series diagram, it can be roughly concluded that inflation and real estate price have certain correlation. In this paper, VAR model is used to analyze the dynamic relationship between inflation and real estate price in China, and the causality between inflation and real estate price is explored through the combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. First, the time series of a single variable is tested by stationary test, and the results show that the sequence lags second order stationary. Then it is confirmed that there is a cointegration relationship between them. Then the vector autoregressive (VAR) model (hereinafter referred to as VAR model). The VAR model can be used to predict the associated economic time series system and to analyze the dynamic impact of random disturbances on the variable system. Further explain the impact of economic shocks on economic variables. After the model is established, impulse response function and variance decomposition are used to analyze the shock response of each variable. The results show that the consumer price of the residents is impacted by some external conditions, which is transmitted to the real estate industry through the market, and brings the same impact to the real estate industry, and this impact has a significant promotion and a longer lasting effect. A certain impact on real estate sales prices will also have the same effect on inflation, that is, the increase in real estate prices will have a steady pull on inflation after 24 months, but you can see that, Changes in real estate prices have less impact on inflation. The variance decomposition results show that the variance contribution of inflation to real estate price is relatively large, and the variance contribution of real estate price to inflation is small. Based on the research results, we can take corresponding measures to control real estate prices from the angle of controlling inflation, and the control of inflation should not rely too much on the control of real estate prices, but also need to be adjusted from other aspects.
【学位授予单位】：吉林财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23;F822.5;F224
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