我国房地产价格组合预测模型探讨
发布时间：2018-08-27 09:00
【摘要】：文章在回顾诱导有序加权调和平均(IOWHA)算子组合预测模型的基础上,分别用指数平滑法、ARIMA模型、回归与时间序列组合模型对我国商品房均价进行预测,然后建立基于IOWHA算子的组合预测模型及评价指标体系。结果表明,IOWHA组合预测模型比其他三种单项预测效果显著更优,且三种单项预测之间具有信息互补性。并基于IOWHA算子得到的最优权系数,预测我国2012-2015年的商品房均价。
[Abstract]:On the basis of reviewing the combined prediction model of induced ordered weighted harmonic average (IOWHA) operators, the paper uses exponential smoothing method to predict the average price of commercial housing in China by using Arima model, regression model and time series combination model, respectively. Then the combined prediction model and evaluation index system based on IOWHA operator are established. The results show that the combined forecasting model of IOWHA is more effective than the other three individual prediction models, and the information complementarity among the three individual forecasting models is obvious. Based on the optimal weight coefficient obtained by IOWHA operator, the average price of commercial housing in China from 2012 to 2015 is predicted.
【作者单位】： 安徽财经大学数量经济研究所;
【基金】：国家社科基金资助项目(12BTJ008) 安徽财经大学研究生创新基金资助项目(ACYC2012039)
【分类号】：F224;F293.3
[Abstract]:On the basis of reviewing the combined prediction model of induced ordered weighted harmonic average (IOWHA) operators, the paper uses exponential smoothing method to predict the average price of commercial housing in China by using Arima model, regression model and time series combination model, respectively. Then the combined prediction model and evaluation index system based on IOWHA operator are established. The results show that the combined forecasting model of IOWHA is more effective than the other three individual prediction models, and the information complementarity among the three individual forecasting models is obvious. Based on the optimal weight coefficient obtained by IOWHA operator, the average price of commercial housing in China from 2012 to 2015 is predicted.
【作者单位】： 安徽财经大学数量经济研究所;
【基金】：国家社科基金资助项目(12BTJ008) 安徽财经大学研究生创新基金资助项目(ACYC2012039)
【分类号】：F224;F293.3
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前5条
1 王维安;贺聪;;房地产价格与通货膨胀预期[J];财经研究;2005年12期
2 曹霄琪;;影响房地产价格因素的计量分析[J];金融经济;2011年02期
3 王雯s，
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