上海市公共租赁住房供需研究

发布时间：2018-08-27 10:14

【摘要】：1998年以来，我国住房货币化分配改革启动了商品住房市场的快速发展，加上工业化和城市化的快速发展，城镇住房制度改革在取得显著性成就的同时，却面临着一个新的问题：城市中买不起经济适用房，同时也不符合享受廉租住房申请条件的家庭越来越多；既不能享受保障性住房，又无力购买商品住房的家庭也越来越多。这个特殊群体处于社会的夹心层中，而他们的住房问题却不容忽视。公共租赁住房面向处于夹心层中的新就业职工、刚毕业的大学生和进城务工人员等，属于政策支持的租赁性住房，是一种过渡周转性住房。通过发展公共租赁住房，上海将形成一个由廉租房、经济适用房、公共租赁住房三者共同构成的多层次住房保障体系。本文以上海市公共租赁住房为研究对象，以其供给和需求为研究内容，梳理了相关理论、上海市公共租赁住房的相关政策和模式，以及国内外的研究状况。在理论层面的探索上主要包括公共住房理论、灰色理论、Logit理论、主成分分析理论和供需理论；上海公共租赁住房政策研究中概况了保障对象、申请条件、保障方式和房源；国内研究集中总结了公共租赁住房的必要性、需求、供给以及出现的问题；国外研究重点介绍了国外对公共住房研究的现状，美国和新加坡等国家公共住房供应、住房补贴和房租控制等方面的成功模式，以及总结了国内外公共住房成功经验的几点启示。上海市公共租赁住房的现状分析以上海市公共租赁住房推出的必要性为起点，，客观阐述了上海市公共租赁住房推出的原因，分别是“夹心层”的出现、租赁市场发展和人才引进的需要；然后分析了可能面临的困境，如需求不断增加、供给不足、保障方式单一和租金设置偏高。再结合上海市公共租赁住房的政策和目前的供需现状，全面地阐述了上海市公共租赁住房当前的主要矛盾。以上海公共租赁住房供给与需求为切入点，基于对上海市宝山区住房保障和房屋管理局、相关公共租赁住房试点小区和公司职员以及进城务工人员等的社会调查，通过访谈、问卷调查、相关数据搜索以及文献查阅，进一步通过对统计问卷以及相关数据的分析，了解上海市公共租赁住房供给与需求状况。运用灰色GM(1，1)模型对上海市2011-2015年城镇户籍常住人口和外来常住人口进行预测，进而运用人口预测数据对上海市公共租赁住房的需求与供给总量进行预测；运用Logit模型对公共租赁住房的需求影响因素进行分析，进而结合调研数据对重要影响因素进行具体分析；运用主成分分析法对公共租赁住房的供给满意度因素进行分析，同样结合调研数据对重要影响因素进行具体分析。在对上海市公共租赁住房需求和供给的具体分析的基础上对上海公共租赁住房供需矛盾及原因进行分析，结合公共租赁住房的政策分析结果及上海公共租赁住房与国际间的比较结论，对上海公共租赁住房供需平衡提出相应的对策和建议。
[Abstract]:Since 1998, China's housing monetization and distribution reform has started the rapid development of the commodity housing market, coupled with the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization, urban housing system reform has made remarkable achievements, but it is facing a new problem: the city can not afford affordable housing, but also does not conform to the application for low-rent housing. There are more and more families who can not enjoy affordable housing and can not afford to buy commercial housing. This special group is in the sandwich layer of society, but their housing problems can not be ignored. By developing public rental housing, Shanghai will form a multi-level housing security system consisting of low-rent housing, affordable housing and public rental housing.
In this paper, Shanghai public rental housing as the research object, its supply and demand as the research content, combed the relevant theory, Shanghai public rental housing policies and models, as well as domestic and foreign research situation. And supply and demand theory; Shanghai public rental housing policy research overview of the object of security, application conditions, security methods and housing sources; domestic research focused on the necessity of public rental housing, demand, supply and problems; foreign research focuses on the status of foreign public housing research, the United States and Singapore and other countries Successful modes of public housing supply, housing subsidy and rent control, and some inspirations from successful experiences of public housing at home and abroad are summarized.
Based on the necessity of the introduction of public rental housing in Shanghai, this paper objectively expounds the reasons for the introduction of public rental housing in Shanghai, which are the emergence of "sandwich layer", the development of rental market and the need of talent introduction, and then analyzes the possible difficulties, such as the increasing demand for public rental housing, and the supply of public rental housing. The main contradictions of public rental housing in Shanghai are comprehensively expounded in the light of the policy of public rental housing in Shanghai and the current supply and demand situation.
Taking the supply and demand of public rental housing in Shanghai as the breakthrough point, based on the social survey of Baoshan District Housing Security and Housing Administration Bureau, relevant public rental housing pilot plots and company staff, and migrant workers, through interviews, questionnaires, relevant data search and literature review, further through statistical inquiry The grey GM (1,1) model is used to forecast the urban household registration permanent population and foreign permanent population in Shanghai from 2011 to 2015, and then the population forecast data is used to forecast the demand and supply of public rental housing in Shanghai. OgIT model is used to analyze the influencing factors of public rental housing demand, and then combined with the survey data to analyze the important influencing factors; principal component analysis is used to analyze the supply satisfaction factors of public rental housing, and also combined with the survey data to analyze the important influencing factors. Based on the specific analysis of the demand and supply of rental housing, this paper analyzes the contradiction between supply and demand of public rental housing in Shanghai and its causes. Combining with the policy analysis of public rental housing and the comparative conclusion between Shanghai and other countries, the paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions on the balance of supply and demand of public rental housing in Shanghai.
【学位授予单位】：上海工程技术大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

【参考文献】