民间借贷债务危机生成及防范研究
发布时间：2018-10-22 19:26
【摘要】：随着经济社会的发展，民间借贷规模、用途、交易主体、交易方式和运行环境均发生了较大的变化，区域性民间借贷风险成为我国民间金融发展过程中一个日益凸显的问题，例如2011年温州“跑路”事件。因此，，探讨民间借贷危机的成因，提出一个切实可行的风险控制模式，对民间金融健康发展具有重要意义。 本文运用结构洞理论、博弈理论及效用理论从微观和宏观两个层面研究民间借贷债务危机生成机理。以民间借贷债务危机生成、扩散和传染、防范为明线，阐述结构洞逐利机制对民间借贷风险的影响；以民间借贷社会网络中参与者之间的博弈为暗线，分析民间借贷风险产生的影响因素。在此基础上，提出民间借贷债务危机防范的主要措施。本文主要结论是： 1、民间借贷主体和资金来源多元化，市场主体相互依存度和外部关联度逐步提高，导致市场结构同质化，以及城乡人口流动加快导致信息不对称加剧和产业资本利润率下降不足以支撑金融资本的利润分割，是民间借贷债务危机形成的微观原因。不连续的货币政策对民间借贷市场和中小企业的冲击是民间借贷债务危机形成的宏观原因。 2、小范围熟人关系借贷效率极高，而当民间借贷跨越特定区域则风险极大。其风险大小受以下因素影响：民间借贷规模和利率、借款者经营项目的收益率、借款违约不被第三方知道的概率、折现因子、监督成本和声誉价值。 3、民间借贷债务危机微观防范措施主要有：完善民间借贷债务合约；培养社会信用观念、加大社会声誉惩罚力度；推进企业转型升级、提高企业项目收益率。民间借贷债务危机宏观防范措施主要有：畅通各种渠道、提高中小企业融资能力；推行逆周期宏观审慎监管框架。
[Abstract]:With the development of economy and society, the scale, use, transaction subject, transaction mode and operating environment of folk loan have all changed greatly. The risk of regional folk loan has become an increasingly prominent problem in the development of folk finance in our country. For example, Wenzhou 2011 "run Road" incident. Therefore, it is of great significance for the healthy development of private finance to probe into the causes of the private lending crisis and put forward a feasible risk control model. In this paper, we use the theory of structural hole, game theory and utility theory to study the formation mechanism of private loan debt crisis from the micro and macro levels. Taking the emergence, diffusion, contagion and prevention of private borrowing debt crisis as the clear line, this paper expounds the influence of the structural hole and profit banishing mechanism on the private lending risk, and takes the game among the participants in the private lending social network as the dark line. Analyze the influencing factors of private lending risk. On this basis, put forward the main measures to prevent private borrowing debt crisis. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1. The diversification of private lending and capital sources, the gradual improvement of mutual dependence and external correlation of market subjects lead to the homogeneity of market structure. And the acceleration of urban and rural population flow leads to the aggravation of information asymmetry and the decline of profit margin of industrial capital, which is not enough to support the profit division of financial capital, which is the micro reason for the formation of private borrowing debt crisis. The impact of discontinuous monetary policy on the private lending market and small and medium-sized enterprises is the macro reason for the formation of the private lending debt crisis. The risk is affected by the following factors: the scale and interest rate of private lending, the yield of the project operated by the borrower, the probability that the loan default is unknown to the third party, the discount factor, Third, the microcosmic measures to prevent the non-government loan debt crisis mainly include: perfecting the private loan debt contract; cultivating the social credit concept, increasing the social reputation punishment; promoting the enterprise transformation and upgrading, Increase the rate of return on enterprise projects. The macroscopical preventive measures of private loan debt crisis include: unblocking all kinds of channels to improve the financing ability of small and medium-sized enterprises; carrying out counter-cyclical macro-prudential regulatory framework.
【学位授予单位】：宁波大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.4
本文编号：2288089
[Abstract]:With the development of economy and society, the scale, use, transaction subject, transaction mode and operating environment of folk loan have all changed greatly. The risk of regional folk loan has become an increasingly prominent problem in the development of folk finance in our country. For example, Wenzhou 2011 "run Road" incident. Therefore, it is of great significance for the healthy development of private finance to probe into the causes of the private lending crisis and put forward a feasible risk control model. In this paper, we use the theory of structural hole, game theory and utility theory to study the formation mechanism of private loan debt crisis from the micro and macro levels. Taking the emergence, diffusion, contagion and prevention of private borrowing debt crisis as the clear line, this paper expounds the influence of the structural hole and profit banishing mechanism on the private lending risk, and takes the game among the participants in the private lending social network as the dark line. Analyze the influencing factors of private lending risk. On this basis, put forward the main measures to prevent private borrowing debt crisis. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1. The diversification of private lending and capital sources, the gradual improvement of mutual dependence and external correlation of market subjects lead to the homogeneity of market structure. And the acceleration of urban and rural population flow leads to the aggravation of information asymmetry and the decline of profit margin of industrial capital, which is not enough to support the profit division of financial capital, which is the micro reason for the formation of private borrowing debt crisis. The impact of discontinuous monetary policy on the private lending market and small and medium-sized enterprises is the macro reason for the formation of the private lending debt crisis. The risk is affected by the following factors: the scale and interest rate of private lending, the yield of the project operated by the borrower, the probability that the loan default is unknown to the third party, the discount factor, Third, the microcosmic measures to prevent the non-government loan debt crisis mainly include: perfecting the private loan debt contract; cultivating the social credit concept, increasing the social reputation punishment; promoting the enterprise transformation and upgrading, Increase the rate of return on enterprise projects. The macroscopical preventive measures of private loan debt crisis include: unblocking all kinds of channels to improve the financing ability of small and medium-sized enterprises; carrying out counter-cyclical macro-prudential regulatory framework.
【学位授予单位】：宁波大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.4
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本文编号：2288089
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