建设人口均衡城市视角下的人口规模预测——以成都市为例

发布时间：2018-12-17 00:33

【摘要】：建设人口均衡城市,首要在于充分摸清人口底数,准确预测人口增长规模,才能科学制定人口和经济社会发展规划。文章针对以往单一指标预测人口总量精度不高的问题,利用灰色预测所需信息少和神经网络非线性映射能力强的优点,筛选出与人口总量紧密联系的9个主要因素,力图建立多指标灰色PSO-BP神经网络人口预测模型,并对2015年至2030年成都市人口总量进行预测。实证分析表明,该模型预测精度高、泛化能力强,具有较好的实用价值。在论文的最后,作者依据模型预测结果,为成都市建设人口均衡城市提出了较有针对性的建议。
[Abstract]:To build a balanced city, the most important thing is to fully understand the population base and forecast the population growth scale, so as to scientifically formulate the population and economic and social development plans. Aiming at the problem that the precision of forecasting population is not high in the past, the paper makes use of the advantages of less information needed by grey forecast and strong nonlinear mapping ability of neural network, and selects nine main factors which are closely related to the total population. This paper tries to establish a multi-index grey PSO-BP neural network population prediction model and forecast the population of Chengdu from 2015 to 2030. The empirical analysis shows that the model has high prediction accuracy, strong generalization ability and good practical value. At the end of the paper, based on the prediction results of the model, the author puts forward some suggestions for the construction of a balanced population city in Chengdu.
【作者单位】：四川师范大学政治教育学院;西南财经大学应用经济学博士后流动站;
【基金】：成都市哲学社会科学规划项目(ZST12-02,ZST11-06)
【分类号】：C924.2;F299.27

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