投资需求扩张、房价上涨与住房限购——一个基于大国政策的准自然实验

发布时间：2019-03-02 16:36

【摘要】：以限购为代表的住房需求管理政策是否应退出,是一个富有争议的话题。论文将住房限购政策抽象为针对"住房投资性需求推高房价"这一假设命题所进行的准自然实验过程,在相关理论分析的基础上,尝试通过构建双重差分模型,对该准自然实验过程作了量化描述与实证分析。基于中国115个城市数据实证结果发现,在控制收入变量后,限购政策对限购城市房价的水平值无显著负面影响。实证结果支持了投资性需求是推高房价重要因素的命题,单纯扩大供给不足以平抑房价波动。住房需求管理政策不应被退出,但限购政策可能被更科学的需求管理或需求引导手段所取代。
[Abstract]:Whether the housing demand management policy represented by the purchase restriction should be withdrawn is a controversial topic. This paper abstracts the policy of housing purchase restriction as a quasi-natural experimental process aimed at the hypothetical proposition of "housing investment demand pushing up house prices". On the basis of relevant theoretical analysis, this paper attempts to construct a double difference model. The process of quasi-natural experiment is described quantitatively and empirically analyzed. Based on the data of 115 cities in China, it is found that after controlling the income variables, the purchase restriction policy has no significant negative effect on the level of housing prices in the cities. The empirical results support the proposition that investment demand is an important factor to push up house prices, and simply expanding supply is not enough to suppress the fluctuation of house prices. Housing demand management policies should not be withdrawn, but purchasing restrictions may be replaced by more scientific demand management or demand guidance tools.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院财经战略研究院;南京大学经济学院;杭州师范大学商学院;
【基金】：2011年度国家社科基金特别委托项目“住房问题研究” 教育部哲学社会科学重大攻关项目“我国城市住房制度改革研究”(项目编号:10JZD0025) 教育部2012规划基金项目“财政政策、房地产价格波动与地方财政平衡研究”(项目编号:12YJA790206)
【分类号】：F293.3;F224

【参考文献】