阿萨德体制下叙利亚的政治稳定研究

发布时间：2018-01-06 14:13

本文关键词：阿萨德体制下叙利亚的政治稳定研究　出处：《西北大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：阿萨德时代是现代叙利亚历史上的重要时期。哈菲兹·阿萨德建立的一党制总统威权体制使叙利亚摆脱了动荡不安的“普力夺社会”,保持了长期的政治基本稳定。但是,这种完全依靠个人威权的政治秩序具有明显的局限性和过渡性,强压式统治之下潜伏着深刻的经济、社会、教派矛盾,而这些问题成为今日叙利亚内乱的渊薮。本文共分为三部分：运用政治稳定理论分析阿萨德体制的背景、结构及特征；并结合阿萨德时代政治稳定状况辅以时间维度划分三个阶段进行动态分析,从政治、经济、社会、宗教等多个层面论述阿萨德体制与政治稳定的历时关系；·最后从内外两个视角思考影响叙利亚政治稳定的正反两方面因素。阿萨德体制是叙利亚历史发展的特殊产物,其金字塔式的权力结构及新威权主义特征基本适应了叙利亚社会发展的客观需要。在阿萨德统治的30年间,叙利亚政治稳定呈现明显的阶段性特征,阿萨德体制与政治稳定之间的相互制约关系非常明显,随着现代化与全球化的不断演进,阿萨德体制对政治稳定的消极影响日益凸显。总体看来,阿萨德时代的叙利亚是一个“稳中有忧”的国家。政治发展相对滞后与经济秩序剧烈变动的矛盾构成了发展中国家现代化进程中政治失稳的根本原因,而叙利亚又深受家族内斗、教派矛盾以及地缘政治的多重影响。
[Abstract]:The Assad era was an important time in the history of modern Syria. Hafiz al-Assad 's one-party presidential authoritarianism freed Syria from the tumultuous "ploughing society." However, this political order, which relies on individual authoritarianism, has obvious limitations and transitional nature, and there are deep economic, social and sectarian contradictions lurking under the coercive rule. These problems have become the source of civil strife in Syria today. This paper is divided into three parts: the analysis of the background, structure and characteristics of Assad's system by using the theory of political stability; Combining with the situation of political stability in the Assad era and dividing it into three stages, this paper discusses the diachronic relationship between Assad's system and political stability from political, economic, social, religious and other aspects. Finally, from both internal and external perspectives, the author thinks about the positive and negative factors that affect Syria's political stability. The Assad system is a special product of Syria's historical development. Its pyramid power structure and the characteristics of neo-authoritarianism basically meet the objective needs of the development of Syrian society. During the 30 years of Assad's rule, the Syrian political stability showed obvious phase characteristics. The relationship between Assad system and political stability is very obvious. With the development of modernization and globalization, the negative influence of Assad system on political stability is becoming increasingly prominent. Syria in the Assad era is a country with "stability and worry". The contradiction between the relative lag of political development and the drastic changes in economic order constitutes the fundamental cause of political instability in the modernization process of developing countries. Syria is deeply influenced by family strife, sectarian conflicts and geopolitics.
【学位授予单位】：西北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：D815.4

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