气候变化对海河流域水资源及粮食产量影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-16 11:44

本文关键词：气候变化对海河流域水资源及粮食产量影响研究　出处：《首都师范大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：海河流域地处华北地区,流域内人口密集、经济发达,在中国政治经济中占有重要地位。该区水资源极为匮乏,已经成为了制约农业发展的重要因素。在全球气候变化的影响下,海河流域全流域平均气温呈显著上升趋势,降水量却在逐步下降。海河流域的气候变化不仅关乎到京津冀都市圈的协同发展,也会对水资源的利用和粮食生产提出了更高的要求。因此科学的评估气候变化对水资源与粮食产量的影响,对保障国家或地区的水资源安全和粮食安全具有重要的战略意义。本文在研究流域气候资源、水资源、农作物产量等变化特征的基础上,以冬小麦为例采用了分布式水文模型—SWAT,建立流域的水文循环和作物管理模型并对模型参数本地化处理；然后结合对流域气候资源和水资源的变化特征的分析,构建包括灌溉在内的九种不同的气候变化情景,载入模型中模拟分析,对不同情景下的气候变化对水资源和粮食产量的影响做出分析；最后有针对性地提出了应对气候变化的水资源管理与农业管理适应性措施。主要研究表明： (1)通过对海河流域气候资源、水资源、农作产量等方面的分析知,全流域多年(1956-2008年)平均降水量呈减少趋势,平均减少幅度为20.7mm/10a,平均气温呈波动式上升趋势,升温速率为0.32-C/10a；水资源总量呈下降趋势且表现为年际变化明显,地表水资源量减少幅度为32.3亿m3/10a；人均粮食产量较低,形势严峻。 (2)在多年平均降水减少10%(情景A)、气温上升1。C(情景B)及两者的组合(情景C)下,流域蓝水资源量将比基准情景分别减少19%,3%,29%,同时绿水与蓝水比例将分别升高至4.6,4.9和5.8。 (3)作物产量与耗水量模拟结果显示,相比基准情景,小麦产量、耗水量、水分生产率及灌溉生产率的平均变幅在情景A中为-5.24%～+1.81%、-2.81%～+1.73%、-3.7%～+0.25%、-4.62%～-2.58%,在情景B分别为-6.31%～-0.57%、+0.33%～+3.52%、-7.60%～-4.77%、-7.85%～-6.53%,在情景C变化分别为-13.38%～+2.03%、-2.25%～+6.19%、-10.34%--4.61%、-12.710%～-7.62%。 (4)针对气候变化对水资源、粮食产量及作物水分生产率的影响,提出了应对气候变化的适应性对策。主要包括：提高水资源利用率、加大水利工程建设、加强水资源的优化配置统一管理的水资源管理应对策略和调整农业结构、改善灌溉设施、提高预警减灾能力、转变政府职能等的农作物管理应对措施等。论文最后对研究过程中出现的问题、不足以及对未来研究的展望做了总结,希望在下一步的研究过程中深入分析,将研究成果真正的用到实际的管理与决策中去。
[Abstract]:With the influence of global climate change , the average temperature in the whole basin of the Hai River Basin has become an important factor which restricts the development of agriculture . The climate change in the Hai River Basin is not only related to the coordinated development of the metropolitan area of Beijing and Tianjin , but also the higher demand for the utilization of water resources and grain production . Therefore , the scientific assessment of climate change has important strategic significance to the water resources safety and food security of the country or region . Based on the study of climatic resources , water resources , crop yield and so on , a distributed hydrological model - SWAT was used as an example to establish the hydrological cycle and crop management model of the basin and to localize the model parameters . ( 1 ) Based on the analysis of the climatic resources , water resources and agricultural output in the Hai River Basin , the average rainfall in the whole basin for many years ( 1956 - 2008 ) shows a decreasing trend , the average reduction amplitude is 20.7mm / 10a , the average temperature is fluctuating , the temperature rising rate is 0.32 - C / 10a , the total water resources decrease obviously , the decrease of the surface water resources is 32.300 million m3 / 10a , and the per capita grain yield is low and the situation is severe . ( 2 ) In the case of a 10 % reduction in average rainfall over the years ( Scenario A ) , the rainfall in the basin increased by 1 . C ( Scenario B ) and the combination of the two ( Scenario C ) , the amount of blue water resources in the basin would be reduced by 19 % , 3 % and 29 % respectively than the baseline scenario , while the ratio of green and blue water will be increased to 4.6 , 4.9 and 5.8 , respectively . ( 3 ) The simulation results of crop yield and water consumption show that the average variation of crop yield , water consumption , water productivity and irrigation productivity is - 5.24 % ~ + 1.81 % , - 2.81 % ~ + 1.73 % , - 3.7 % ~ + 0.25 % , - 4.62 % ~ - 2.58 % in Scenario A , - 7.85 % ~ - 6.53 % , - 2.25 % ~ + 6.19 % , - 10.34 % - - 4.61 % , - 12.710 % ~ - 7.62 % , respectively . ( 4 ) Aiming at the effects of climate change on water resources , grain yield and water productivity of crops , this paper puts forward the adaptation measures to deal with climate change . It mainly includes : improving the utilization ratio of water resources , increasing the construction of water conservancy projects , strengthening the optimization of water resources , managing the strategies and adjusting the agricultural structure , improving irrigation facilities , improving the ability of early warning and mitigation , and transforming government functions . In the end , the thesis summarizes the problems , shortcomings and prospects of the future research , and hopes to deeply analyze the future research process and use the research results in actual management and decision - making .

【学位授予单位】：首都师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：S162

【参考文献】