北京市低碳能源综合评价模型与2030年能源战略研究

发布时间：2018-01-19 00:04

本文关键词： 低碳能源综合评价情景分析 IPAC-Beijing模型　出处：《北京工业大学》2014年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：由人为温室气体排放所引起的全球气候变化问题日益引起国际社会的广泛关注，而能源消耗则是其中最关键的因素，因此如何尽快开发出高效能源新技术并加快应用，降低能源领域的温室气体排放已成了世界各国的重要政策着力点，许多国家和地区已经为此设定了中长期的发展和减排目标，展开低碳能源行动。北京市作为拥有两千多万人口的特大型城市，是我国的政治、经济、文化中心，社会经济发展程度高于全国平均水平，其发展路径和模式对其他地区乃至全国都有相当的影响力，在目前快速发展的时期，北京市尽管已经较好的完成了国家设定的二氧化碳和节能指标，但较低水平的能源利用技术和对化石能源的高度依赖不仅导致温室气体排放量绝对值的持续增加，，而且使大气环境也受到了严重影响，PM2.5等有害颗粒物排放也在持续增加，严重影响了首都城市功能和居民身体健康,因此迫切需要找出一条城市低碳能源的发展路径实现可持续发展。具体研究方法上，在对北京经济能源环境现状和国际主流能源系统分析模型详细研究的基础上，针对北京市在现阶段要实现应对气候变化、解决大气污染控制和能源安全的多重目标，充分考虑能源环境新技术的应用和创新对于发展质量的提升的作用，建立IPAC-Beijing模型能源技术经济数据库，利用C++BULIDER语言、GAMS语言和IPAC模型框架开发了IPAC-Beijing模型，提出了理性预期的情景分析法，并以2005年为基年利用模型计算出了三种情景下的北京市优化能源结构改善大气环境质量的发展路径，给出了2030年的低碳能源发展目标和政策建议，同时为国内其他省市在制定相关政策时提供了定量理论分析支撑。研究最后提出，在强力政策驱动情景下，北京市在2030年的能源消费总量可以控制在1.1亿吨标准煤，其中2025年可达到1.4亿吨左右的峰值，温室气体排放达到230万吨，下降到2020年的水平，大气污染水平也将大幅度降低。主要的政策建议是政府应该全面构建基于最先进技术的能源体系，彻底取消终端领域的燃煤，促进天然气高效燃烧技术和新能源的应用，争取使北京市的用能效率在2020年到2030年期间达到国际领先水平，新能源和可再生能源在能源消费中的比例达到10%，其中城市太阳能光热和工商业分布式光伏屋顶电站应大力发展，浅层地温能和污水源热泵技术应该是发展的重点，新能源汽车和生物燃油研发技术也应是政府政策的着力点。此外，北京市应进一步明确首都城市功能定位，明确产业发展负面清单，确立企业技术创新主体地位，积极发展以高新技术为主的低碳产业，在全社会积极营造绿色发展可持续发展的良好社会氛围。
[Abstract]:The issue of global climate change caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions has increasingly attracted the attention of the international community, among which energy consumption is the most critical factor. Therefore, how to develop new efficient energy technology and accelerate its application as soon as possible, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the field of energy has become an important policy focus in the world. Many countries and regions have set medium- and long-term development and emission reduction targets, and launched low-carbon energy initiatives. As a super large city with more than 20 million people, Beijing is the political, economic and cultural center of our country. The level of social and economic development is higher than the national average, and its development path and model have considerable influence on other regions and even the whole country, in the current period of rapid development. Beijing has met its national targets for carbon dioxide and energy conservation. However, low levels of energy use technologies and high dependence on fossil energy not only led to a sustained increase in the absolute value of greenhouse gas emissions, but also seriously affected the atmospheric environment. The emission of PM2.5 and other harmful particulates is also increasing, which seriously affects the function of the capital city and the health of the residents. Therefore, it is urgent to find a way to realize the sustainable development of low-carbon energy in the city. On the basis of the detailed research on the current situation of economic energy and environment in Beijing and the analysis model of international mainstream energy system, this paper aims at the realization of coping with climate change in Beijing at the present stage. To solve the multiple objectives of air pollution control and energy security, fully consider the application and innovation of new energy environment technology to improve the quality of development. The energy technology and economy database of IPAC-Beijing model is established, and C BULIDER language is used. The IPAC-Beijing model is developed by GAMS language and IPAC model framework, and the scenario analysis method of rational expectation is put forward. Based on the model of 2005, the development path of optimizing energy structure in three scenarios to improve atmospheric environmental quality in Beijing is calculated, and the development goals and policy recommendations of low-carbon energy in 2030 are given. At the same time for other provinces and cities in the formulation of relevant policies to provide quantitative theoretical analysis support. Finally, under the strong policy driving scenario, the total energy consumption of Beijing in 2030 can be controlled at 110 million tons of standard coal, among which the peak value of 140 million tons can be reached in 2025. Greenhouse gas emissions reached 2.3 million tons, falling to 2020 levels, and air pollution levels will be significantly reduced. The main policy recommendation is that the government should build a comprehensive energy system based on the most advanced technologies. The coal burning in the terminal area will be completely eliminated, and the application of high efficiency natural gas combustion technology and new energy will be promoted, and the energy use efficiency of Beijing will reach the international leading level between 2020 and 2030. The proportion of new energy and renewable energy in energy consumption reaches 10, among which the urban solar energy and solar energy and industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic rooftop power station should be vigorously developed. Shallow geothermal energy and sewage source heat pump technology should be the focus of development, new energy vehicles and bio-fuel research and development technology should also be the focus of government policy. In addition, Beijing should further clarify the location of the capital city function. We should make clear the negative list of industrial development, establish the main position of technological innovation of enterprises, actively develop low-carbon industries with high and new technology, and create a good social atmosphere for the sustainable development of green development in the whole society.
【学位授予单位】：北京工业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.2;X24

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