巴西“离心型”民主政体影响下的社会治理

发布时间：2018-03-03 04:33

本文选题：碎片化政党制度　切入点：开放名单比例代表制　出处：《四川外国语大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：巴西国内周期性的经济危机和混乱的社会秩序贯穿于巴西殖民时期、威权统治时期以及民主转型时期各阶段。近年来巴西政治、经济局势的急剧变化再次将政治制度与社会治理的关系引入大众关注的视野。为何拥有相似执政纲领,同属劳工党的执政者卢拉、罗塞夫,会产生截然相反的社会治理绩效?站在不同政治立场的卡多佐与卢拉却创造了经济奇迹?又是何原因导致民主制下的巴西依然徘徊在经济危机与混乱社会的边缘?本文将通过离心型民主政体理论模型,运用多元回归分析的方法来解释上述问题。首先,基于政治制度理论构建离心型民主政体理论模型,并简要介绍该理论模型的基本因素:碎片化政党、比例代表制下的总统制、超大规模执政联盟和社会治理。该理论模型主要是从政党—行政和行政—立法两个维度来解释巴西离心型的政治制度是如何塑造政治参与者行为,进而导致不同的社会治理结果。其次,基于理论模型提出回归分析的命题假设,并对各变量进行操作化。本文以1994-2015年的相关数据为样本,运用多元回归的方法分析碎片化政党与超大规模执政联盟、超大规模执政联盟与经济形势、经济形势与社会暴力这三个不同阶段内基本因素的相关性。通过分析发现议会有效政党分化程度越高,执政联盟规模就越大;而执政规模又加剧了议会有效政党数对经济形势的影响,二者取值越大,经济形势越恶劣;而经济形势的恶化使失业率激增,进而引发大规模的罢工活动,导致社会失序。最后,采用多案例分析离心型民主政体下卡多佐、卢拉及罗塞夫三届政府的执政策略及社会治理绩效。发现执政联盟策略影响着巴西经济危机和社会失序的循环往复。具体而言:巴西政治制度从政党—行政和立法—行政两个维度共同塑造了超大执政联盟,成为总统推行社会治理政策的重要阻力。但卡多佐和卢拉通过内阁职位分配、政治交易及谈判的方式获得了议会多数的支持,使社会改革政策维持在共识、妥协类别。即罗塞夫执政时期,其减裁内阁规模、增税、透支财政支出等举措遭到了议会精英阶层的烈反对,进而导致社会改革政策走向冲突类别,所以经济形势与社会秩序持续弱化。
[Abstract]:The cyclical economic crisis and chaotic social order in Brazil run through the colonial period, the authoritarian period and the period of democratic transition. The sharp changes in the economic situation have once again brought the relationship between the political system and social governance to the attention of the public. Why does Lula Rousseff, the leader of the Labor Party, have a similar ruling program? Cardoso and Lula, on different political grounds, have created economic miracles? And why is it that Brazil, under democracy, is still on the brink of economic crisis and chaos? In this paper, the theoretical model of centrifugal democracy is used to explain the above problems by means of multiple regression analysis. Firstly, the theoretical model of centrifugal democracy is constructed based on the theory of political system. And briefly introduces the basic factors of the theoretical model: fragmentation of political parties, proportional representation under the presidential system, The theoretical model mainly explains how the centrifugal political system in Brazil shapes the behavior of political participants from the two dimensions of party-administrative and executive-legislative. Then it leads to different results of social governance. Secondly, the proposition hypothesis of regression analysis is put forward based on the theoretical model, and the variables are operated. This paper takes the relevant data from 1994-2015 as the sample. Using the method of multiple regression to analyze the fragmented political party and the super-large ruling alliance, the super-large-scale ruling alliance and the economic situation. The correlation between the economic situation and the basic factors in the three different stages of social violence. It is found through the analysis that the higher the degree of differentiation of the effective political parties in parliament, the larger the scale of the ruling coalition; However, the ruling scale has aggravated the influence of the number of effective political parties in Parliament on the economic situation. The greater the value of the two parties, the worse the economic situation; and the worsening economic situation has led to a sharp increase in the unemployment rate, which has led to large-scale strikes. Leading to social disorder. Finally, a multi-case study of Cardoso in a centrifugal democracy, The governance strategy and social governance performance of the three governments of Lula and Rousseff. It is found that the strategy of ruling coalition affects the cycle of economic crisis and social disorder in Brazil. The two dimensions of law and administration have shaped the super ruling coalition together. It has been a major resistance to the president's policies of social governance. But Cardoso and Lula have won the support of a parliamentary majority through cabinet assignments, political transactions and negotiations, keeping social reform policies in agreement. Compromise categories. In Rousseff's administration, measures such as cutting the size of the cabinet, raising taxes, and overdrawing fiscal spending were strongly opposed by the parliamentary elite, which led to social reform policies moving into conflict categories. So the economic situation and social order continue to weaken.
【学位授予单位】：四川外国语大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：D777.7

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